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Responding to the crisis in North Korea
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As the Republic of Korea (ROK) prepares for presidential elections on 18 December, veteran opposition leader Kim Dae Jung has emerged as the most likely winner. Not only would this be the first such victory for the opposition, but it would also mark a further step in the military’s declining role in ROK politics. Two major challenges will face the new president – economic reform, and dealing with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to the north. The ROK urgently needs to reform its economy to avoid the problems that have already beset South-east Asian countries. The South’s growing economic predicament coincides with a deepening and more fundamental crisis in North Korea, which has already caused malnutrition and famine in some parts of the country. International assistance is a temporary lifeline for the DPRK, but for stability on the Korean Peninsula to endure, Pyongyang will need to demonstrate an unprecedented willingness to embrace economic and political reform. This issue of Strategic Comments examines the challenges facing both North and South Korea.
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The Republic of Korea's presidential election
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The second article in Strategic Comments' focus on 'Korea at the Corssroads'
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The dilemma facing Yasser Arafat
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With the Middle East peace process at an impasse, Yasser Arafat’s political authority is eroding. Unable through his own endeavours to advance the Oslo peace process, the Israeli release of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in October 1997 has further undermined Arafat’s position. Arafat has reacted to his predicament by adopting increasingly authoritarian ways and making his Executive Authority even less responsive to the Palestinian Legislative Council.
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The UK Strategic Defence Review
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The UK Labour government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) has progressed from its initial foreign-policy phase to examine the role, missions and structures of its armed forces. It assumes that, over the next 15 years, the UK’s global commitments will become more uncertain and dependent on rapid-reaction forces, and will increasingly be driven by its NATO and European allies. The SDR appears to advocate developing expeditionary forces, while increasingly integrating the three armed services. To achieve high levels of sustainability for these forces, but without additional resources, the SDR may change the readiness levels of some units in support of others. It will also expect greater efficiency in procurement. The SDR is due to be completed in spring 1998.
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Politics of climate change: the Kyoto summit
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Despite international agreement on the importance of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases – thought to contribute to a warming of the earth’s climate – leading governments are divided over how to achieve that goal. US President Bill Clinton’s environment package announced on 22 October has only served to highlight those political divisions. Preparatory discussions in Bonn in recent weeks have failed to resolve these differences, and have cast a pall over the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to be held in Kyoto on 1–10 December. Barring a dramatic breakthrough, a legally binding treaty to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions is increasingly unlikely to emerge from Kyoto.
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