Volume 3 - Issue 8 - October 1997

The ruling Communist Party of China (CPC)’s 15th National Congress took place in Beijing on 12–18 September 1997. Although CPC leader Jiang Zemin ousted his long-term rival Qiao Shi, many of Qiao’s allies remain in place and could present Jiang with long-term problems. During the Congress, Jiang stated his commitment to reforming China’s massively inefficient and over-staffed state-owned enterprises. However, this pledge remains vague and falls far short of the privatisation which is almost certainly necessary in the long run.

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Latin America’s vast Amazon Basin spans eight of the continent’s states and no less than 7% of the earth’s surface. Its mineral riches and other natural resources are the object of ruthless exploitation, frequently at the expense of indigenous peoples. Drug cultivation is increasingly widespread, despite substantial US assistance aimed at its eradication. In addition, guerrilla insurgency in Colombia and Peru shows little sign of being contained. These problems – together with the risk of wholesale environmental destruction – demand a coordinated regional approach if they are to be effectively tackled.

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After its seemingly exponential growth in the early 1990s, UN peacekeeping is an industry in recession. Regional organisations – such as NATO, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Economic Community of West African States – or ‘Coalitions of the Willing’, acting under UN Security Council mandates, have taken over from the UN. Wisely, the UN is using its respite from tackling some of the world’s more intractable conflicts to professionalise its peacekeeping department and secure the approval of many countries for its troop stand-by arrangements. While peace-enforcement operations may be outside its capability for a long time to come, if its critical financial impasse with the US can be overcome, the UN may be better prepared to handle peace-implementation agreements in the future.

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Angola appears to be once again on the brink of renewed conflict. The hand of President José Eduardo dos Santos’ ruling Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party has recently been powerfully strengthened by a number of factors. These include: the imposition of UN sanctions against Jonas Savimbi’s National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) – due to come into effect on 30 October 1997; stronger political and military support from the US; and the ousting in May 1997 of UNITA’s main regional backer, former Zairean President Mobutu Sese Seko. With the implementation of the November 1994 Lusaka Peace Accords at a standstill, some members of the Angolan government may see a military offensive as an increasingly attractive option.

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European defence ministries have made little or no commitment to the issue of tactical missile defence (TMD). This is despite the growing threat of missile proliferation and the risk to NATO forces conducting operations ‘out of area’. Budgetary pressures and the end of the Cold War have led to an ad hoc approach towards missile defence with little in the way of European or transatlantic cooperation. The absence of meaningful European TMD capabilities could lead to increased political and military differences with the US which attaches a considerably greater sense of urgency to this issue.

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