Volume 3 - Issue 4 - May 1997

Despite the fact that the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) II has still to be ratified by the Russian Duma, the March 1997 summit in Helsinki between US and Russian Presidents Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin has initiated the process towards a START III agreement. But even more than its predecessors, this arms-reduction agreement – with what is likely to be a highly intrusive verification regime – could face difficulties in gaining legislative approval in both countries. For the first time, a START agreement is likely to cover warheads as well as delivery systems.

There are few signs that Albania’s fourth presidential election since the fall of communism in 1991, to be held before the end of June, will bring political stability to the country. Indeed, it could complicate the work of the Italian-led intervention force. Despite the near fall from power of President Sali Berisha and his Democratic Party (PDS) following street protests in February 1997, the PDS has been trying to claw its way back to power. However, even given the sizeable diaspora, Albania’s internal turmoil seems to have had little effect on the Albanians in Kosovo or the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM).

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Notwithstanding the end of the Cold War, political and social violence in Colombia is at an all-time high. The two main left-wing guerrilla groups – the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) – unlike their Guatemalan or El Salvadoran counterparts, show little sign of accepting political accommodation with the government. For the authorities in Bogota, seeking a solution is complicated by the multiplicity of rebel actors with which it has to deal, many of which have increasingly become involved in criminal activities to help them finance their struggle.

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Since regaining their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have relentlessly pursued a path towards integration in the European Union and NATO. However, their ambitions are likely to be thwarted for many years, if they are fulfilled at all. While intra-Baltic defence has developed apace, political and economic cooperation still lags behind. The scope for cooperation with the Nordic countries to the north is still considerable and may offer the best hopes for medium-term security.

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The Australian government of Prime Minister John Howard, elected in March 1996, is rethinking the country’s defence policy. Building on developments introduced by the previous Labor government – such as the December 1995 defence agreement with Indonesia and the rapid expansion of defence cooperation with Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries – the Howard administration is moving towards a more proactive and expansive national defence policy. Taking advantage of technological developments in modern warfare, Australia also hopes to maintain its defence lead over its Asian neighbours.

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