Volume 3 - Issue 2 - March 1997

In an attempt to assuage Russia’s concerns about NATO enlargement, the Alliance has presented Moscow with a series of radical proposals for revising the 1992 Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. One of the key recommendations involves replacing the original bloc-to-bloc and zonal restrictions on the five categories of military hardware with ‘national limits’. With NATO poised to announce candidates for membership at its Madrid summit in July, a strategy to calm Russian fears about the military consequences of enlargement is becoming increasingly urgent. The process of revising the CFE Treaty, however, is unlikely to be completed before the Madrid summit.

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Heirs to the KGB

Russia’s intelligence and security services have recovered from the upheaval that followed the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 and the dissolution of the KGB. The appointment on 4 February 1997 of Russian Interior Minister Anatoly Kulikov as Deputy Prime Minister responsible for security underscores a systematic trend towards revitalising and reintegrating Russia’s intelligence and security agencies. These services have now developed closer links with the government and with key economic actors. Economic intelligence both inside Russia and abroad is increasingly the focus of the six main security agencies. With inter-agency rivalry diminishing, a consolidated intelligence empire could pose new dangers for the West and for the process of democratisation in Russia.

Eliminating excess plutonium stockpiles

One of the most challenging arms-control and non-proliferation issues facing the international community is how to eliminate excess stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium, and ensure that they are never again used in nuclear weapons. In January 1997, Washington announced a dual-track initiative to dispose of its own excess plutonium. This strategy consists of converting plutonium to mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel in currently operating commercial reactors, and immobilising some of it with highly radioactive fission products for disposal as waste. Given the vulnerability of Russia’s excess weapons-grade plutonium to theft, and the associated proliferation risks, a strategy for disposing of Russia’s stockpiles needs to be concluded as soon as possible.

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Relations between Russia and Ukraine

More than five years after the break-up of the Soviet Union, relations between its two most important republics, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, remain strained. At the root of the problem lies Moscow’s continuing refusal to accept Ukraine as a truly independent state. The future of the Black Sea Fleet and of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), economic differences and diverging attitudes towards nato continue to divide the two states. The presence of substantial numbers of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, particularly in the Crimea, underlines the potential dangers of these divisions. The two countries are no closer to a mutual understanding and a breakdown in their relations cannot be ruled out.

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The transition to a post-Mandela South Africa has already begun. Barring unforeseen events, Thabo Mbeki will replace Nelson Mandela as President of the African National Congress (ANC) in 1998 and as State President in 1999. Mbeki’s political inheritance will be mixed, however. A vigorous civil society, strong traditions of statehood that make ethnic fragmentation unlikely, political pluralism and considerable economic resources will assist the transition to a new generation of leaders. But without Mandela’s towering authority and charisma, an Mbeki government will face considerable social and political tensions as it copes with the difficult task of economic restructuring.

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