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Challenges facing verification |
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Despite more than five years of a highly intrusive verification regime, it is clear that the determined efforts of the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) on Iraq have still not unveiled the full extent of Saddam Hussein’s extraordinarily ambitious war machine. The fact that Iraq’s development programmes in the nuclear, biological, chemical and missile fields is still unknown, and that they could easily be reactivated, presents a renewed challenge to Middle Eastern security. At the same time, if unscom’s efforts have not been fully successful, the prospects for a wide variety of verification regimes are not encouraging. Current and future non-proliferation regimes need to take this into account.
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Turkey and the European Union |
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Relations between Turkey and the European Union (EU) remain at a low ebb. Turkey’s increasing frustrations at the lack of progress in its bid to gain full membership of the eu could well have repercussions for the country’s domestic politics as well as for its foreign-policy agenda. Additionally, this could lead to increased tensions over Cyprus and deteriorating relations with Greece. US and European attitudes towards Turkey are likely to diverge and become an increasing source of tension in transatlantic relations.
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Milosevic's political crisis |
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After more than two months of street protests in Belgrade, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic remains in power having annulled opposition victories in the November 1996 municipal elections. The size and scale of the demonstrations, and the widespread support they have evoked, have left Europe’s last surviving communist regime even more isolated domestically and internationally. With the economy worsening and little prospect of the remaining international sanctions being lifted, labour unrest is likely to resurface. For his part, Milosevic shows little sign of conceding or sharing power and the stage seems set for a prolonged political crisis which could have regional implications.
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Germany's new look security policy |
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The presence of German combat troops in Bosnia and Herzegovina as part of the new NATO Stabilisation Force (SFOR) highlights the substantial changes made in German security policy since the end of the Cold War. A shift in policy to allow for Bundeswehr forces to be used outside German national boundaries has met no meaningful public opposition in contrast to earlier moves in that direction. The armed forces themselves are undergoing considerable reform with the creation of the Crisis Reaction Forces (CRF), although abolishing the draft still remains a distant option. Greater political cooperation with France inside the European Union (EU) is also extending into the security field with joint arms projects and even discussions over nuclear security. Increasingly, Bonn’s security policies are becoming more European and less Atlanticist.
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India's arms industry |
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Even though India has made some incredible achievements in missile development, its arms industry is still unable to meet the demands of the Indian armed forces to any significant degree. While the resources available to the country’s arms industry and the various defence establishments are considerable in terms of manpower and scientific competence, India is still a long way from achieving self-sufficiency in any substantive area. Unlike several other developing countries, India has virtually no export markets for those weapons which have gone into production. Ironically, where there have been successes, these pose considerable challenges for regional security in South Asia.
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