Copenhagen Accord faces first test
The global agreement on climate change reached in Copenhagen in December 2009 faces its first test at the end of January when individual countries submit schedules for reducing carbon emissions over the next 10 years. Their commitment to do so was part of the Copenhagen Accord to which heads of government signed up following two frenetic weeks of bargaining. The Accord fell far short of the goal set two years earlier in Bali, Indonesia to produce a legally global treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.
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Rising extremism in South Asia
The trend towards violence and extremism in South Asia moved inexorably upwards in 2009. Afghanistan and Pakistan experienced major increases in terrorist incidents, often involving suicide bombings against high-profile urban targets including hotels frequented by foreign nationals and installations belonging to the security forces. Though governments have begun to take small practical steps to manage the problem more effectively, these are unlikely to have much impact in the short term. The likelihood of continuing high levels of violent extremism in 2010 remains high.
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Serbia surges forward
A year ago Serbia’s prospects looked somewhat grim. Blocked on the road to European integration, it was bracing itself for a predicted economic contraction of up to 10%. Its citizens needed visas to travel to most countries outside the region. In a short period, however, things have changed so much that Serbian leaders have taken to claiming that their country is retaking its place as the natural leader of the region.
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