South Sudan's quest for independence (page 2)
Darfur
It is also unclear whether Sudanese living in Darfur will be able to vote. The region has been split by a separate civil war since 2003. Darfurians are all Muslims, so there is no religious dimension to this conflict. But familiar patterns of ethnic divisions, dwindling resources and, perhaps above all, neglect by the all-powerful centre are to be seen. The UN says 2.7 million people have been displaced, and 300,000 killed, though al-Bashir puts the figure at 10,000 deaths. The International Criminal Court indicted the president for war crimes in March 2009 and issued an arrest warrant for him – the first time it had pursued a sitting head of state. Khartoum reacted by kicking out 13 foreign NGOs working in Darfur, marking a new low point in its already fraught relationship with the international community. (It has since allowed four back in, albeit under slightly different names.)
Though the catastrophic humanitarian disaster predicted for Darfur has not happened, it is still too early to judge the long-term consequences and the situation is still critical, with 4m people needing food aid. Death rates have dropped dramatically and fighting has for some time been reduced to skirmishes.
His words were decried by aid groups and the powerful Save Darfur lobby in the US, but surprised few in Sudan. All the same, continued instability may make it difficult for Darfurians to vote in the elections. A stuttering peace process is making little ground, despite the efforts of Gration and the AU’s mediator, Djibril Bassolé of Burkina Faso.
Weak basis of a Southern state
With the situation in Darfur more stable, attention has focused on the growing North–South tensions. Since the CPA was signed, there have been two major outbreaks of deadly violence, in Malakal in 2006 and Abyei in 2008, though both were contained relatively quickly. As a key part of Sudan’s oil-producing infrastructure, Abyei is of particular significance, since the CPA failed to establish whether it was in the North or the South. After the NCP rejected a local ruling, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague laid out the borders of the region, which is due to vote in 2011 on whether it wants to join the South or the North. The Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan regions will have similar popular consultations at the same time. As well as these three areas’ undecided fate, the exact border between North and South still has not been drawn – an important matter, not least because of the location of oil reserves.
Since 2005, oil produced in the South has accounted for 98% of the Government of Sudan’s revenue. But 50% (or roughly $7 billion a year) must go to the South, under the CPA. Whether the South votes for independence or not, it will have to continue to work with the North, as the only viable pipeline runs through the North to Port Sudan. But the oil wealth, as well as issues of national sovereignty, makes the North very unwilling to consider letting the South go. Northern politicians fear that, if the South were allowed to secede, Darfur, and maybe even the restive but forgotten East, may make copycat demands.
The oil industry in Sudan is notoriously opaque. A recent report by the campaigning group Global Witness questioned Khartoum’s figures, pointing out that the revenue it announced was different to that recorded by CNPC, the Chinese oil giant exploiting the oilfields. This raised the possibility the South was being cheated out of money, an accusation denied by the NCP.
There are also serious concerns about where the money goes in the South. The Government of Southern Sudan boasts of the roads and schools it has built. But even the SPLM’s Amum admits this is a ‘drop in the ocean of Southern Sudan’s needs’ and that corruption remains a real problem. The South’s problems also include a growing wave of inter-ethnic violence, which has worried the authorities as well as the UN peacekeeping mission, UNMIS. The South accuses the NCP of fuelling the violence, without providing any proof. In the southern state of Jungle alone, 2,000 people have been killed this year, more than in Darfur. Jungle is the size of Bangladesh, but has only 50 kilometres of roads useable all year round. Many people in the state are among the 1.5m the World Food Programme says are facing serious food insecurity in Southern Sudan. The SPLM is struggling to cope, but there is growing concern about its governing capacity.
An independent Southern Sudan would be one of the poorest and least-developed countries in the world. But if its citizens are allowed to vote freely, there is no doubt they will demand independence. Such an outcome is not certain given the North’s understandable desire not to lose sovereignty and income. But any serious attempt by the North to block the South’s right to self-determination is likely to lead to a further war, and there have been reports that both sides are trying to rearm. Rebel groups and displaced people in Darfur will be watching the situation closely. The next few months are thus one of the most critical periods in Sudan’s short but bloody history.
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