Since gaining independence from Anglo-Egyptian rule in 1956, Sudan has struggled with the question of its identity. Two damaging civil wars between the Muslim, Arab North and the black, non-Muslim South have taken up a total of four decades. There is little sign that the current period of uneasy peace, symbolised by a government of national unity, and ushered in by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005, has done much to resolve deep ethnic, religious, ideological and cultural splits. However, under the terms of the CPA, a referendum on independence for the South is due to be held in 2011.
This looming milestone has further complicated inter-ethnic discord as the two sides wrangle over territory and oil reserves. In the meantime, legislative and presidential elections are scheduled for April 2010. They have been described by the United Nations electoral officer as ‘perhaps the most complicated in the world ever’.
Shaping the referendum
The vote on the South’s independence was the key provision of the CPA, which was hammered out following intense international pressure to end the 1983–2005 North–South civil war. On 9 January 2005 the National Congress Party (NCP) of President Omar al-Bashir and John Garang’s Southern People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) signed the CPA in Nairobi and agreed to form a unity government. The SPLM took over control of Southern Sudan, which is now semi-autonomous, with its own army, banking system, parliament and flag – though Garang died in a helicopter crash days after becoming vice president. Troops from both sides formed Joint Integrated Units, and there has been some cooperation in drafting a series of laws designed to facilitate next April’s elections. But the two sides have frequently squabbled and are currently unable to agree on the terms of the referendum.
The NCP initially wanted a 70% vote threshold for independence to be granted, but finally agreed to the SPLM’s 50%+1 formula. In return, the SPLM agreed that the large population of Southerners living outside the South could vote, despite fears there would be pressure or outright rigging by the North. It also seemed to have been agreed that, for the poll to be valid, two-thirds of the Southern electorate would have to vote. Southern Sudan is one of the poorest and least-developed regions on earth, and the woeful infrastructure, low literacy rates and lack of electoral culture mean any vote is a tricky business. However, the SPLM rejected the provision, leading to an ongoing stand-off between the two sides. United States Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration has tried on several occasions to push them towards a deal, but his latest attempt in early November ended in failure.
Though the Sudanese authorities are expected eventually to make a deal on the referendum, UN officials have warned that in technical terms a year is needed to make the proper arrangements, so time is running out. If the South believes a vote will not be held, or will not be fair, there is a real risk of renewed conflict. Pagan Amum, Secretary General of the SPLM, has threatened a ‘unilateral declaration of independence’ if a fair referendum is not held.
Few people doubt the desire of the South to secede. ‘There is no significant prospect, in this very short time, of the Southerners voting for anything other than a separate state’, Alex de Waal, a leading Sudan scholar, told the BBC. ‘The question is how this should be done in an orderly, consensual and legitimate manner, so that there is no war between North and South, and people’s rights can be protected. There are still many in the North who believe there is a possibility of unity being effective, they still long for a united Sudan. But there is a growing realisation among many, including among the NCP leadership, that the separation is the most likely option.’
The SPLM’s stance has hardened. ‘Since independence Sudan has been run as an Islamic and Arab state,’ senior SPLM figure Deng Alor said on 3 November. ‘How do you want me to accept being a second-class citizen in my own country?’ SPLM leader Salva Kiir, who took power after Garang’s death, also recently called on Southerners to vote for secession, before backtracking slightly. (Under the CPA, both sides must work to make unity attractive, so any outright calls for independence risk jeopardising the North’s cooperation with the CPA.)
Since Sudan’s independence, Southerners have fought for their own country or at the very least to improve their lot. Garang was perhaps the last true advocate of a ‘New Sudan’, a unified and changed country, not two nations, before his death stripped the energy from the movement. These scarcely veiled calls to vote for independence are, if not entirely new, certainly fresh in tone and stridency, and mark the increased frustration of the SPLM.
Election issues
Next April’s elections will consist of several votes, including for president, parliament, the Southern government and governors. Sudan has hardly any recent electoral history: the last national polls were in 1986. The international community insisted on the polls as part of the CPA, in an attempt to furnish Sudan with a truly representative government. Southerners are worried that if the NCP wins a sweeping victory it may try to renege on its commitments to the CPA, and possibly rewrite the Interim Constitution. But this is unlikely, given the amount of international and even local condemnation it would attract.
The registration process has been clumsy, with widespread irregularities and many potential voters unaware of the need to register. Both the NCP and the SPLM believe the other has forcibly stopped registrations, sometimes torturing supporters of the ‘wrong’ party in their half of the country. There is a significant prospect of violence during the elections. Given the divided Northern opposition, and the relatively low demographic weight of the South, there is a good chance that al-Bashir, who has been in power since a 1989 coup, will win, even without cheating. Though once seen as little more than a figurehead, during his long reign al-Bashir has proven capable of clever political manoeuvres. While he may be tempted to take a harder line if given the mandate, his party is no longer the staunchly Islamist party it once was, with most members now recognising that continued poor relations with the US do not benefit Sudan.
It is not yet clear whether the Northern opposition and the SPLM will even contest the polls. Major opposition figures, such as former prime minister Al Sadiq al-Mahdi, the Islamist Hassan Turabi and the communist Mohamed Nugud, met with the SPLM leadership in the Southern capital Juba in late September. They issued a combined threat to boycott the elections if several laws, including ones on the security services, public order and freedom of the press, are not modified to conform to the vision laid out in the CPA.
1 | 2
Next>
