Gulf states step up defences (page 2)
More broadly, Gulf countries have seemed willing to drop their traditional reticence about military ties with the West in general and the US in particular. Though American soldiers, sailors, air personnel and marines have been stationed in the Gulf for decades, local rulers have always insisted that that their presence be quiet and, at times, deniable. The US has, for example, operated major facilities in Bahrain since the 1970s, but only in the last few years have local sensibilities evolved to the point where these can be referred to as a ‘base’. Bahrain now ranks among the US Navy’s largest overseas facilities and is the home of the 5th Fleet.
Meanwhile, the US has been at pains to stress that its eventual departure from Iraq will not mean the closing of its facilities in Bahrain. Last February, Manama’s Gulf Daily News quoted the 5th Fleet’s commander, Vice Admiral Bill Gortney, saying he did not expect the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq to lead to any change in the size of the American deployment to Bahrain. Washington’s message is clear: it means to deter Iran, but it is also indicating to Arab states that it takes the region’s security seriously and intends to remain in the Gulf for the long term.
A few days prior to the Bahrain announcement the region saw a smaller but significant military development. On 26 May French President Nicolas Sarkozy formally inaugurated ‘Peace Camp’, a French naval and air base in Abu Dhabi that will accommodate up to 500 troops. Though small, the base is symbolic for both countries. For France, it is the first new overseas military facility in half a century, and the first ever to be located in a country with no colonial ties to France. For the UAE, despite long-standing military ties to both Britain and the US, Peace Camp represents the first formal foreign military installation on its soil since independence in 1971.
It was clear from remarks surround-ing the base’s opening that it was designed to send a message to Iran. Sarkozy told the UAE’s official news agency: ‘Be assured that France is on your side in the event your security is at risk.’ More bluntly, one of his aides told Agence France Presse: ‘We are deliberately taking a deterrent stance. If Iran were to attack, we would effectively be attacked also.’
Gulf dilemma
The bases and weapons purchases illustrate the dichotomy of Gulf thinking regarding Iran. Some Gulf states fear that Iran, with its size and wealth, aspires to the status of regional superpower. Were Iran to have nuclear weapons – or a ‘break-out’ capacity that could quickly furnish it with weapons – rulers fear Tehran could dictate to them in military and economic matters. They do not want a nuclear Iran. At the same time, however, they are concerned about the possible consequences of a hard Western line against Iran, and especially of military action aimed at disabling its nuclear programme. They fear that Tehran’s response would be to lash out not at the West, but at the West’s friends in its neighbourhood. Hence their increased expenditure on defence, missile shields and foreign bases.
Confronting this dilemma by tightening their embrace of the West – and doing so openly – represents a gamble for the Gulf’s rulers: it is an implicit acknowledgement that however much they may spend on weapons, their security, ultimately, lies with outside powers. With the closure of American facilities in Saudi Arabia and, eventually, Iraq, and an accompanying scaling-down of operations in Kuwait, the trend is obviously towards a smaller overall US footprint in the region. This, however, must be balanced against the new wave of weapons sales, the French base in Abu Dhabi and the significant expansion of American naval facilities in Bahrain. When the dust settles there may well be fewer foreign troops in the Gulf than there were a decade ago, but with Iraq no longer a strategic threat to its neighbours this was to be expected. The remaining forces are very openly focused on Iran. It is too soon to say whether Iran, looking from across the water, sees a threat or a deterrent.
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