Unrest of 2008 prompts policymakers into action
In the summer of 2008, following a two-year period which saw 75% increases in international food prices, staples such as rice, corn, cereals and soybeans reached 30-year price highs. This price spike was most prominent in the case of rice (a key food source for approximately 3 billion people), whose value more than tripled in just four months. The international price of the benchmark Thai B Grade white rice increased from about $360 per tonne in November 2007 to a record $1,080 per tonne the following April. International market prices for wheat, corn (maize), soybeans and other foods also hit record highs in the ensuing months. As prices reached their peak, there were riots and protests in more than 30 countries, which contributed to the overthrow of the governments of Haiti, Mauritania and Madagascar.
Farmers across the developed world responded to price signals by harvesting a record wheat crop in the 2008–9 season, while many countries produced near-record rice and corn harvests. But even though the easing of supply-and-demand pressures has led prices to drop significantly, they are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels. Food prices in November 2009 were still 30% higher than they were in November 2006, and 92% higher than they were in January 2000. Those hardest hit by this net price increase, as well as by the global economic downturn, are the world’s poorest. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimates that the number of undernourished people is now over 1bn, about 100 million more than before the food crisis. While the intense political pressure brought about by protests and civil action has largely ceased, the global food crisis is by no means over.
The issue of food security is defined by the UN as ‘when people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’. It is not a question of food independence among individual nations (hardly any can claim to be entirely self sufficient). Rather, when food security is lacking, and famine threatens, it is a failure of local markets, economic development, international markets, national politicians and the international community.
Climbing up the international agenda
The percentage of Official Development Assistance (ODA) funds being channelled towards the agricultural sector dropped from 17% in 1979 at the peak of the so-called ‘green revolution’ (whereby new research and technologies transformed farming practices, allowing agricultural production to keep pace with a swelling world population), to a low of 3.5% in 2004. By 2007 this figure had crept back up to 5.5%. Since the unrest of 2008, governments and international organisations have acknowledged that current levels of investment in agriculture and food security are insufficient to meet both the short term-challenge of preventing dangerous spikes and the long-term challenges presented by climate change and population growth. The fact that policymakers are now placing greater priority on such issues has given optimists reason to hope that a second green revolution could be afoot.
A number of summits over the course of 2009 have demonstrated a coordinated political will on the part of both the developed and developing world to tackle the problem of food security. In January, a ministerial summit convened in Madrid by the UN and the Spanish government created a new Global Partnership for Agriculture and Food Security as a means of galvanising political momentum across governments, the private sector and donors. In July, the G8 meeting in L’Aquila, Italy produced a promise to ‘mobilise’ $20bn over three years in a ‘coordinated, comprehensive strategy focused on sustainable agriculture development’. This was complemented two months later at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh by increased promises for agricultural investment worth $22bn and a new plan for a trust fund for food security within the World Bank. The World Summit on Food Security, which took place on 16–18 November 2009 at the FAO’s headquarters in Rome, was attended by delegates from 180 countries, including 60 heads of state. Though this summit did not result in any new funding pledges, it produced a statement that underscored the necessity of national action on food security, to be nurtured by the international community and multilateral organisations.
Global investment challenges
Ensuring food security over the long term will require a concerted international effort that cuts across government agencies, donors, farmers and corporations. By 2050, the world’s population is expected to peak at approximately 9.1bn, 3bn more than today, and, according to UN estimates, will demand a 70% increase in food production over the next 40 years. And though individual scientific models provide conflicting predictions of how precipitation and agricultural productivity will be affected by global warming, there is general agreement that the land areas available to arable farming will be subject to change, requiring farmers to adapt their methods accordingly.
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