Threefold crisis rocks country's foundations
The massive suicide bomb that destroyed the Marriott hotel in Islamabad (above) on 20 September drew international attention to three crises – security, political and economic – that are challenging Pakistan and its leadership. The blast killed at least 53 people and wounded 266, and it was timed to take place after President Asif Ali Zardari's first address to parliament, when he and many of his cabinet were allegedly scheduled to dine at the hotel. Almost unheard of in Pakistan before 2005, suicide bombings are now frequent and wide-spread; and the Marriott attack demonstrated that terrorists were able to threaten the heart of the federal capital.
Growing militancy
Terrorist attacks, and fighting in the Bajaur tribal agency and around Swat in North West Frontier Province (NWFP), are testament to the growing power of the Tehrik-e-Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban movement, under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud from his base in the South Waziristan tribal agency. These developments also suggest strong support for the Afghan Taliban among Pakistani Pushtuns, who are more numerous than those in Afghanistan. Pushtuns form the great majority in NWFP and also live in northern Baluchistan, Karachi and the seven Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA; see map). Pushtuns in both countries number some 30 million and share outrage at what they perceive as the violation by non-Muslims of both their homeland and Pushtunwali, the ancient tribal code of honour.
In August, Pakistani security forces intensified their military action against insurgents in Bajaur and Swat. On
8 October, Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, then in charge of military operations and soon to become director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, reported to parliament that 2,744 'terrorists' had been killed in military offensives, including 321 foreigners, and 1,400 injured. These operations, which continued despite a government 'ceasefire' during the holy month of Ramadan, unusually were not carried out by ground forces alone. Incensed by the bombing of a bus near Peshawar air base on 12 August, the Pakistani air force conducted air strikes against insurgents. Up to 300,000 people have been displaced from their homes and some 20,000 have taken refuge in Afghanistan.
Such unprecedented operations indicate that the army's main priority is to combat the Tehrik-e-Taliban and al-Qaeda in order to stabilise Pakistan. It is reluctant to extend its range of targets to include the Afghan Taliban and their protectors in Pakistan, although reports suggest senior members of the Afghan Taliban, including leader Mullah Omar, continue to find sanctuary in Baluchistan and elsewhere in Pakistan.
The United States has pressed the Pakistan Army to take firmer action against the Afghan Taliban in support of the NATO force and the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom counter-terrorism mission in Afghanistan. NATO and US commanders in Afghanistan face an unremitting flow of militants across the Durand Line between the two countries, which Afghanistan does not recognise as an international border. There was an indication of US frustration when the Pakistani armed forces chief, General Afshaq Kayani, and Lieutenant-General Pasha met Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, on an aircraft carrier in the Indian Ocean on 26 August – which Mullen followed with a visit to Islamabad on 17 September. Concerned at Pakistani ineffectiveness in counter-insurgency operations, the US military has stepped up its logistical and training support. It has also taken matters into its own hands by launching attacks on targets within the FATA.
Despite Pakistani objections, nearly 20 US drones have been remotely launched at targets in Pakistan since the start of September. Even more outrage was caused when US ground forces attacked targets in South Waziristan on 3 September – a blatant violation of an ally's sovereignty apparently sanctioned by President George W. Bush. Both houses of parliament called on the Pakistani government to 'repel such attacks in future with full force' and the president, prime minister and chief of army staff issued vigorous protests. On 3 November, General David Petraeus, the US regional commander, was firmly told while visiting Islamabad that such action was counterproductive.
Political turmoil
These tensions are playing directly into domestic Pakistani politics, which have been in turmoil since March 2007, when President Pervez Musharraf suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and ten other judges. National protests triggered a sequence of events, including an agreement by Musharraf to allow former prime minister Benazir Bhutto to return from exile and contest general elections. Her rival and fellow former PM, Nawaz Sharif, was subsequently granted the same right. After Bhutto's assassination during the election campaign in December, her widower Asif Zardari assumed the leadership of her PPP party – which then won the largest number of seats in the National Assembly in the February 2008 elections. The decision by Sharif, the leader of the PML-N party, to join the PPP in a ruling coalition was widely welcomed. But the coalition did not last, as the two sides argued about how to treat the judges sacked by Musharraf, among other things. On 25 August, a week after Musharraf finally stepped down as president, Sharif and his party broke away.
Having successfully outmanoeuvred Sharif by securing the support of several smaller parties, Zardari emerged the clear victor in the 6 September elections (held among the legislature) for the presidency. Although he now has a strong constitutional position and has never been convicted of a crime, Zardari's presidency may be fragile. He is deeply unpopular in Pakistan and has a reputation for corruption and violence, dating back to his time as a minister in his wife's government in 1993. He has also made enemies within the PPP by dismissing many of those who had been close to Bhutto.
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