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Strategic Comments 2008

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Strategic Comments  – Volume 14, Issue 8 – October 2008   

Climate change and the  US election (page 2)

 

 

Policy positions

Both candidates have published position papers on climate policy with targeted emissions reductions (see table). McCain calls for allocation of some emissions permits in the initial stages, although eventually the proportion to be auctioned would be maximised. He says he would take a leadership role in UN negotiations, and would provide incentives for rapid participation by India and China, while negotiating bilateral agreements with each.

 

In remarks made on the campaign trail, he has stressed that emerging and developed countries must be subject to the same emissions standards, and that he would work with the EU and other governments to engage countries that do not comply, if necessary by offering transfers of technology.

 

‘McCain proposes a major expansion of nuclear energy. Obama, while declining to eliminate it as an option, stresses that security, waste storage and non-proliferation concerns would first need to be addressed.’

Meanwhile, Obama proposes a cap-and-trade system to reduce emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 – significantly more stringent than McCain's proposal, although his plan does not set out interim targets. The policy would include auctioning of all emissions permits, a less regressive method than the allocation system proposed by McCain.

 

Obama says he would re-engage with the UN effort. He would also propose a Global Energy Forum that would invigorate and expand two parallel Bush initiatives: the Major Economies Meetings process, involving the top 16 emitters; and the G8+5 process, encompassing the G8 plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa. Countries like China and Brazil, Obama says, 'must not be far behind [developed countries] in making their own binding commitments'.

  

Both candidates offer programmes, standards and incentives to develop new technologies and consumption patterns, to make reaching the proposed emissions targets practical. Although these differ in detail, the principal contrast is in the degree to which they would rely on nuclear power as part of the low-carbon economy. McCain proposes a major expansion of nuclear energy. Obama, while declining to eliminate it as an option, stresses that security, waste storage and non-proliferation concerns would first need to be addressed.

 

Partisan politics

The party platform adopted at the Republican National Convention in September included no specific policies on climate change. It merely set out the party's philosophical approach. The language was anodyne, but included wording that reflected the attitude of the Bush administration and its supporters while avoiding anything directly contradicting McCain's stated positions.

 

This was no accident – it was extensively rewritten by a platform subcommittee to avoid controversy within the party. Ambiguous language was purposely introduced: the phrase 'global warming' was replaced by 'climate change', and the phrase 'any polices should ... not harm the economy' was inserted in lieu of an explicit rejection of cap-and-trade policies. References and allusions to human activity as a cause of climate change were removed, to avoid alienating a significant part of the Republican base.

 

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain's vice-presidential candidate, is representative of this last group. In an interview conducted just before her selection, she said of global warming that 'I'm not one ... who would attribute it to being man-made'. In September 2007 she did, though, establish a state sub-cabinet on climate-change strategy, saying that 'some scientists tell us to expect more [climate] changes in the future'.

 

Climate-change policy is an issue where McCain differs with much of his party, and where Palin helps him win their support. Her selection gives some indication of the priority McCain would be willing, or able, to give to the issue. In his acceptance speech, McCain's only mention of global warming or climate change was a single, oblique mention of 'clean-coal technology' in the context of establishing energy independence.

 

 

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Emissions-reduction goals