Volume 14 – Issue 7 – September 2008

The war in Georgia in August 2008 has raised important questions about the future of the Caucasus region, as well as about Russia's relations with countries of the former Soviet bloc, and more generally about great-power relations and international institutions. This special issue of Strategic Comments is devoted exclusively to the war in Georgia and its ramifications.

A failure of strategy

The outbreak of war in Georgia has left no outright victors. While Moscow could claim to have won the military battle, it remains isolated on the world stage in its formal recognition of the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. The South Ossetians have taken a step towards eventual reunification with North Ossetia, but Abkhazia may find itself more closely tied to Russia than it had been hoping. Georgia is certainly worse off after the brief conflict, as is its would-be patron, the United States.

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A chronology of the crisis

From the moment Georgian forces launched an attack on the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, on 7 August to the day in early September when Russia agreed to promptly withdraw its troops from undisputed Georgian territory surrounding South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Strategic Comments provides a blow-by-blow guide to the conflict.

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Anxious neighbours

From Ukraine to Central Asia – and in Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh – shock waves from Russia's intervention in Georgia are still being felt. Moscow's actions signalled to its neighbours that it was ready to defend its interests – by military means if necessary. It increasingly sees NATO enlargement and Western military presence in the region as 'red lines' not to be crossed, and,  if they are, it is ready to respond assertively.

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Europe's energy dependence 

Georgia is the key transit country for Caspian oil and gas exports to the West, so war on its territory raised questions over Europe’s energy supplies. There are plans for the Nabucco project to expand the supply of Caspian and Central Asian gas to the Continent without going through Russia. However, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are unwilling to alienate Moscow at a time when it is asserting its influence in the region.

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Russia's rapid reaction 

Russia's unexpectedly rapid military response to Georgia's moves on South Ossetia upset all of Georgia's key strategic calculations. However, the campaign also revealed Russian military weaknesses. Its forces are equipped with outmoded weapons and victory appears to have been won largely as a result of the Georgian army’s collapse. 

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