Volatile Pakistan |
As President Pervez Musharraf faces a crisis of legitimacy, the political outlook for Pakistan is extremely uncertain. The return from exile of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, who survived an immediate attack that killed 140 people in Karachi, has made the course of events even harder to predict. Pakistan’s future is of vital importance because it is intimately bound up in the world’s most serious security issues: the fight against international terrorism and Islamic extremism, the fate of Afghanistan, and the spread of nuclear weapons. This Strategic Comment includes a chronology of political and security developments in Pakistan. |
| Afghanistan conflict |
Western armed forces face an intensifying insurgency as they seek to bolster the government in Kabul, in which public confidence is fragile. Their opponents have increasingly turned to suicide bombings and other terrorist tactics. As NATO forces engage in combat in the south and east, they are hampered by a shortage of soldiers and equipment, and by national restrictions on the operational use of troops. NATO requires more effective interlocutors in the international community, as well as in the Kabul government, if strategies for rebuilding Afghanistan are to be properly integrated. |
| Myanmar's peaceful rebellion |
An upsurge of peaceful protest led by Buddhist monks brought hopes of greater democracy in military-ruled Myanmar. However, the regime again resorted to violence to suppress the protests, leaving a bleak outlook for political progress. International protests and sanctions are unlikely to bring a significant change of course from the regime, which still has important economic ties with China, India and some Southeast Asian states. |
| Baltic Sea security |
Countries bordering the Baltic Sea are apprehensive about Russia’s increased use of the Baltic for energy exports. Plans to build a gas pipeline under the Baltic linking Russia and Germany have raised both environmental and security concerns. |
| Russia's defence industry |
The industry has become more streamlined and financially stronger after recovering from near-disintegration following the end of the Cold War. After being supported by export orders, Russia’s defence manufacturers may see a revival in domestic demand. However, the restructuring and consolidation that is under way – with a renewal of central control – will bring challenges, as will efforts to reform procurement practices and eliminate corruption. Full text HTML & PDF (subscribers only) >>> |
