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Volume 13 – Issue 4 – May 2007

The Baghdad surge
Security has improved in areas of the Iraqi capital that have so far received additional deployments of forces according to the Baghdad Security Plan. Violence has been displaced to other localities, which will be addressed as the surge continues. However, General David Petraeus, commander of US forces in Iraq, has said that success will depend on attainment of political rather than military goals. The surge is intended to create the space for Iraq’s warring factions to reach a sustainable political settlement.
 
 
Islamist terrorism in the UK
Details of a fertiliser bomb plot which emerged from a recently-concluded trial have shed light on the scale of the problem of Islamist radicalisation in the UK, and the degree to which terrorist activities were being directed by al-Qaeda from Pakistan.  A series of foiled plots has prompted new responses, including increased resources for intelligence and surveillance, and a reshuffling of departmental arrangements within the government.  
 
 
Japan–China relations
Japan–China bilateral relations have improved significantly and unexpectedly since Shinzo Abe became Japan’s prime minister in 2006. His visit to Beijing in October succeeded in ‘breaking the ice’, and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao followed this up with an ‘ice melting’ visit to Japan in April 2007. Whether these moves mark the start of a true ‘strategic relationship’ remains, however, open to question.
 
 
Pacific island conflicts
A series of small conflicts in Pacific island nations is increasingly absorbing the attention and resources of Australia and New Zealand. Problems in the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu, as well as concern about prospects in Papua New Guinea, are signs of long-term problems in the region that will place continuing demands on Canberra and Wellington – which have also been involved in quelling troubles in East Timor – to deploy military and police personnel.
 
German foreign policy
Chancellor Angela Merkel has brought about a renaissance in Germany’s foreign relations that few would have thought possible when she was elected to head a ‘grand coalition’ in 2005. She has forged new relationships with the United States and European partners, has altered Berlin’s posture towards Russia, and has emerged as a European leader. However, public opinion makes it difficult for her to alter German caution on the nature and scale of participation in international military operations.  

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