| Iran's nuclear programme |
The dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme has become a contest of wills between the United Nations Security Council’s insistence that Tehran suspend its uranium-enrichment programme as a condition for multilateral talks, and Iran’s determination to press ahead with enrichment while expressing a willingness to begin negotiations. Further escalation seems certain. Recognising that military options have drawbacks and risks, Washington is prepared to follow the diplomatic route for now. Ultimately, however, if diplomacy fails – and Iran overcomes the technical problems hampering its enrichment programme – consideration of military options by the United States will become more serious. |
| British defence policy |
As Tony Blair prepares to step down as prime minister, strains are appearing in the defence structure built over the past decade. Top serving military officers have indicated that the armed forces are operating near the limits of their capabilities. With the operational burden remaining heavy, much attention will be directed towards the attitudes of Blair’s successor, most likely to be Gordon Brown. One option would be to order a new defence review to re-examine the foundations of defence policy and the capabilities that are needed. With or without a review, difficult decisions will have to be made affecting future levels of operational commitment and purchases of equipment.
|
| Russian foreign policy |
A renewed assertiveness has emerged in Russian foreign policy. President Vladimir Putin caused a stir in February 2007 with a speech attacking the United States, and in April said Moscow’s observance of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty would be suspended in response to American plans to site missile defence facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic. The prospect is for a period of chill in relations between Russia on the one hand, and the US and Europe on the other, reflecting frustrated hopes on both sides. However, fears that current tensions could signal a renewed Cold War are unfounded, as relationships on security matters are more complex than previously and the two sides are likely to continue to be engaged on issues such as Iran. |
| An OPEC for gas? |
The formation of an organisation for natural gas producers along the lines of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) came a step closer in April 2007 at a meeting in Qatar of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum. An expert panel was set up to study pricing, infrastructure and the relationship between producers and consumers. Russia and Qatar deny they want to establish a gas cartel, but the forum is considering closer cooperation on pricing, technology-sharing and investment priorities. Any moves that could involve formal cooperation on pricing and production would be opposed by consumer nations and some leading producers. |
| US missile defence |
Washington’s proposal to station components of the US missile defence shield in Poland and the Czech Republic aroused anger in Moscow and grumbles in Europe – not least in the two countries concerned. It prompted renewed discussion about the future relationship between missile defence systems planned for the United States and those being developed for the NATO alliance as a whole. |
