Turmoil in Timor Leste |
A dispute between the government and renegade security force elements in Timor Leste having escalated out of control, in late May an Australian-led international military intervention was necessary to restore order. With Timor Leste, which became independent in 2002 after 24 years of Indonesian occupation and three years of United Nations tutelage, apparently on the brink of failing as a state, the question now is how a process of national disintegration can be reversed. Some form of international security presence will be needed in the medium- to long-term to ensure that Timor Leste does not come off the rails again. |
Somalia’s Islamists |
Since the 11 September attacks, and especially after the United States-led defeat of the Taliban in late 2001fear has been that al-Qaeda holdouts fleeing Afghanistan would seek and find refuge in failed or failing states in sub-Saharan Africa. The leading candidate for such jihadist colonisation has been Somalia, the southern two-thirds of which has been without a functioning central government for 15 years. The ascendancy in June 2006 of the Islamic Courts Union militia in Mogadishu has made the prospect of an Islamist takeover of territory more salient, and has incidentally cast doubt on the political effectiveness of covert US support for secular militias that have opposed them. But there are also countervailing factors arguing against worst-case scenarios. |
Afghanistan’s regional diplomacy |
Within the Central/South Asia nexus, the sense remains that Afghanistan is both a source of regional instability and a proxy for US geopolitical designs. Thus, while its trade and energy networks are developing, Afghanistan has not yet been integrated into regional security mechanisms, such as they are, and political cooperation has remained at a functional level. Afghanistan’s desired profile in the region is as the pivotal state in a new network of trading and energy relationships. This objective is realistic, but until the country stabilises and a significant political dimension is added to the government’s economic strategy, Afghanistan is likely to remain a marginal transit state rather than an integral and active component of the regional security complex. |
Sino-American space politics |
Luo Ge, vice-administrator of the China National Space Agency (CNSA), has proposed that NASA Administrator Michael Griffin visit China and tour its major space facilities later in 2006 – a proposal that the White House has, despite congressional misgivings about the putative threats posed by China’s space exertions, advised Griffin accept. Such a visit would place NASA in the policy vanguard and because it comes at a time when there is little consensus in Washington about the appropriate level of engagement between space establishments. His own sense that NASA will benefit more from a cooperative environment than an alienatingly competitive one vis-à-vis his CNSA counterparts is likely to be advantageous for wider US-Chinese relations. |
Nigeria’s political prospects |
The May 2007 Nigerian presidential election will mark the first time that one civilian government in Nigeria has turned power over to another. It was opened up by the defeat, in May 2006, of a constitutional amendment that would have allowed President Olusegun Obasanjo to run for a third term. While the possibility of a reasonably credible electoral process that brings the country closer to a consolidation of its democracy should not be entirely discounted, nor should the scope for a serious political breakdown. |
