| Iraq's new administration |
The selection of Nuri al-Maliki as Iraq's new prime minister, and his formation of a government broadly acceptable to all factions, represents significant political progress after months of stalemate. However the danger is that politics in the Iraqi parliament and cabinet, locked away as they are within the fortified green zone, will quickly become removed from the everyday concerns of the majority of the population. If the new government follows the path of its predecessor and becomes mired in the incestuous politics of party competition, then it may well hasten Iraq’s descent into inter-communal strife. |
Cooperative intelligence |
Recently confirmed CIA Director, General Michael Hayden, has said that the CIA should make it a ‘top priority’ to nurture information exchanges with its foreign counterparts on threats of mutual concern. He advocates more routine exchanges of documents and shared access to databases – a departure from the CIA’s tradition of ‘transactional’ sharing only at the specific request of partners in favour of a ‘common knowledge’ model. In addition, Hayden believes that the timely sharing of raw intelligence would perforce improve intelligence analysis by testing the plausibility of information before a wider and more critical audience. |
| Ehud Olmert's plan |
The new Israeli government will have to secure American support for convergence, the term applied by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to a process by which Israel would give up settlements east of the security barrier now under construction. Convergence is a buzzword using a Hebrew term that connates ingathering or assembly. Israel will not be prepared to move unilaterally for another six months. This will give Palestinians more time to settle on an arrangement that provides Abbas with clear authority to talk to Israel. In the meantime, Hamas’s refusal to agree to the Quartet’s conditions – recognition of Israel, respect for previous PA commitments, and renunciation of violence – will provide adequate cover for Olmert’s unilateral instincts. |
| Iran and Turkey |
Relations between Turkey and Iran have recently improved to their warmest in a generation, lifted by common concerns about internal ethnic unrest, a short-term convergence of regional interests, growing economic ties and – albeit for different reasons and to different degrees – a shared sense of growing international isolation. However, historical rivalries, differing long-term regional objectives, Turkey’s still powerful secular establishment and its reluctance completely to alienate the West are likely to ensure that cooperation between Tehran and Ankara remains restricted to a number of individual issues rather than developing into a full-blooded strategic alliance. |
Unstable democracies in Southeast Asia |
Recent developments in Thailand and the Philippines – the two countries once seen as Southeast Asia’s leading lights in terms of political reform – have demonstrated that ‘democratisation’ is not necessarily an irreversible or sufficient solution to problems of political development. More fundamental reforms and safeguards are also needed. |
