| US military options against emerging nuclear threats |
As the prospects of Iran developing a nuclear weapon capability become more conceivable, US planners are reported to be examining various military options to deal with this possibility – and there has even been speculation that the US might be willing to use nuclear weapons to eliminate Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is enormously difficult to deny emerging nuclear states – and particularly those that take measures to protect and obscure their nuclear capabilities – the achievement of their military designs. And yet, just such an objective is central to America’s military strategy, as first articulated in the January 2002 Nuclear Posture Review. |
| China’s domestic politics |
The first presidential visit to Washington by China’s leader, Hu Jintao, in April achieved no breakthroughs in any of the contentious issues between China and America. But it did clearly demonstrate that China was in no mood for confrontation. The Communist Party’s focus remains primarily on managing social tensions and economic dislocation at home. It is also struggling with tough political decisions that need to be made in the next 18 months or so in preparation for a five-yearly congress, a crucial event for Hu. |
| Turning point in the Balkans |
There is little doubt that coming weeks and months represent a critical turning point for the Balkans. They may well witness the death of the now barely functional state of Serbia & Montenegro, as well as the birth of three new states in Europe: Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo. While this could represent a clear break with the past and opportunities for the future, there is also a distinct risk that the Balkans may be entering a new period of extended instability and even violence. |
| The Georgian-Ossetian conflict |
The conflict between Georgia and the unrecognised republic of South Ossetia, has been frozen since major fighting ended in 1992. But in the past year the dispute has risen towards the top of the security agenda in the South Caucasus, assuming greater importance within the broader European and Eurasian security contexts. However, notwithstanding this new international attention, substantial impediments to a resolution of the conflict remain. The best interim course of action may be to encourage the implementation of a variety of practical confidence-building measures. |
Sanctions against North Korea |
For some five months now, Pyongyang has boycotted the Six Party Talks that have episodically been convened by China to address North Korea’s nuclear activities. Pyongyang has done so on the grounds that the United States has unjustly imposed financial sanctions upon it as punishment for various illicit activities. Its resultant economic anguish seems real. The matter threatens to block any resumption of dialogue for months to come, as Washington turns up the financial pressure. |
