| The GCC and Gulf security |
The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – which encompasses Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain and Oman – face a new and more uncertain strategic environment. Under these circumstances, they might be expected to band together more tightly. This, however, is not yet the case. Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Oman all maintain bilateral ties to the United States and privilege that relationship over their multilateral GCC obligations. Each country has sought the security of an external guarantor in the form of the United States, rather than in the enhancement of the collective capabilities of the GCC itself. |
| Syria under siege |
The car bomb that killed former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri on 14 February 2005 transformed the relationship between Syria and Lebanon and precipitated political turmoil in both countries. With international suspicions having coalesced regarding Syrian complicity, and an investigation having in consequence been launched into the matter, the assassination has also greatly multiplied external pressure on Damascus. At issue now is what, if anything, the Syrian regime can do to extricate itself from its predicament. |
| Japan’s strategic realignment |
With purpose, momentum and unmistakable symbolism, Japanese policymakers have embarked upon major new steps that are leading inexorably to Japan’s emergence as a ‘normal’ power. With the clear concurrence of Washington, Japan is moving to stake out a security role increasingly shaped by its own aspirations and goals. But the absence of a regional security framework mutually acceptable to Tokyo and its neighbours suggests the possibility of heightened power rivalries that could perturb Northeast Asia as a whole. |
| The future of the Balkans |
Ten years after the Bosnian war, the situation in the region of the former Yugoslavia is unrecognisably improved, but in parts fragile. It is peaceful and the leaderships of all of the states and territories that emerged from Yugoslavia – barring Slovenia, which is already a member of the European Union and of NATO – are increasingly preoccupied with their economic problems and their bids to join western institutions. Kosovo is a worrisome blot in this landscape, however, and the coming year will also see much delicate diplomacy aimed at restructuring relations between the other states of the Balkans. |
| US policy towards Sudan |
While Darfur’s problems have largely fallen from the headlines over the past six months, they remain of grave international concern. For its part, the US is militarily overstretched and diplomatically preoccupied. Sub-Saharan African problems are customarily relegated to the lower half of its list of strategic priorities. President George W. Bush’s freedom of action abroad, meanwhile, has been restricted by the sharp decline in his domestic approval rating. And yet, developments in Sudan retain considerable bipartisan resonance. Domestic political factors are likely to keep US attention focused on Sudan, and they may even stimulate a more robust policy response. |
