| Iraq after the referendum |
On 15 October, Iraqis went to the ballot box for the second time since regime change. On this occasion, they were being asked to vote for or against a permanent constitution. With 78.4% voting for the constitution, the referendum appeared to deliver resounding backing for a democratic Iraq and for the political parties involved in drafting the document. However, beyond the headline voting figures, the constitution became the focus of an acrimonious and increasingly sectarian debate about how politics are to be organised. These matters bear crucially on the run-up to legislative elections scheduled for the end of this year. |
| The Iranian nuclear impasse |
The 24-25 November meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could be a crunch point for a decision to report Iran’s nuclear transgressions to the UN Security Council. It was the Board’s decision on 24 September to find Iran in noncompliance with the IAEA’s Safeguards Agreement that set in play the legal basis for putting the issue on the Security Council’s agenda. Upon any referral, several options – ranging from condemnatory resolutions to sanctions – might in principle be ranged against Tehran. |
| Southeast Asian counter-terrorism after ‘Bali 2’ |
The terrorist bombings that killed 20 people, including five foreign tourists, and injured more than 120 on the Indonesian island of Bali on 2 October should not have come as a surprise. Despite advances in Indonesian counter-terrorism efforts over the last three years and the splintering of the Indonesia-based but pan-regional Jemaah Islamiah (JI) terrorist organisation, a tangible threat has persisted. While weaknesses in Indonesian law-enforcement are partly to blame, lawlessness in the southern Philippines has provided JI and other militants with a sanctuary. Indonesia and other Southeast Asian states could do much to minimise the threat still posed by Islamist terrorists. |
| A missile proliferation tipping point? |
Although ballistic missile proliferation in three critical regions – East Asia, South Asia and the Middle East – has increased steadily over the last decade, there has been significant net decrease in overall ballistic-missile deployment levels from Cold War levels. Yet ballistic missiles and defences against them command attention of decision-makers and analysts, to the exclusion of considerations about the increasingly pressing problem of cruise missiles proliferation. As a consequence, little insight has been gained into how offensive and defensive missile choices are now being made, and how destabilising pre-emptive strike doctrines are being formulated. |
| The EU factor in Turkey's politics |
On 3 October 2005, Turkey formally opened accession negotiations with the EU. But the protracted wrangling that preceded the EU’s decision further fuelled suspicions in Turkey that the EU will ever accept Turkey as a full member, opting instead to allow negotiations to drag on indefinitely. In recent years Turkish domestic politics have been carefully indexed to obtaining a date from the EU for the beginning of accession negotiations, allowing the ruling Justice and Development Party to postpone confronting a number of highly sensitive issues. These will now present themselves more prominently and urgently. |
