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America's alliances in East Asia |
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America’s evolving regional strategy is neither bilateral nor multilateral, except in so far as regional actors are prepared to support US policy goals. With a few exceptions (most conspicuously, Japan) it is designed primarily to enlist security partners when and where needed, not to develop an integrated strategy based on a more continuous mutuality of interest. In so doing, American strategic goals will be advanced, but whether this provides a sustainable basis for longer-term security cooperation, as distinct from episodic or contingency-driven requirements, remains to be seen.
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The Philippines’ southern insurgency |
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An end may be in sight to the Moro insurgency in the southern Philippines, which has pitted Muslim separatist groups in Mindanao and Sulu against the central government in Manila. Since last year, a military stalemate and other factors have encouraged concessions on both sides that may facilitate a settlement. That would help slow or even reverse the Philippines’ slide towards ungovernability and reduce the danger of the South becoming a sanctuary for internationally-connected terrorist groups. But important obstacles remain, and even if a settlement proved possible its durability would not be assured.
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Crunch time for Kosovo |
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On 27 May 2005 the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will consider a regular quarterly report on Kosovo from Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Barring unforeseen events, or possible stalling tactics from Russia, this meeting will be different from the routine gatherings of the past: it should trigger a sequence of diplomatic initiatives aimed at beginning an intense round of shuttle-diplomacy between Serbia and Kosovo. But, assuming that Serbs and Kosovo Albanians cannot agree one for themselves, it is possible that within six to nine months the UNSC may decide to take the difficult step of imposing a solution for Kosovo.
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Nuclear safety and security in South Asia |
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In their progressive emergence as nuclear-weapon powers India and Pakistan have taken on grave responsibilities. Both in their own and in the wider global interest, they must not just ensure strategic stability and the avoidance of nuclear war, but also the safety and security of their growing armouries at all times. At the level of basic principle these responsibilities can be summarised simply: that while remaining evidently and dependably available to sustain deterrence of war, nuclear weapons should never be discharged accidentally or without proper top-level authorisation; and that neither weapons nor related material, equipment or know-how should ever come into the hands of irresponsible actors.
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Strategic dimensions of international telecoms |
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The international telecommunications networks on which economic and military structures to a large degree depend are surprisingly vulnerable to potentially debilitating attacks by state and non-state actors. This vulnerability derives in part from the nature of the networks’ physical infrastructure, but commercial factors are also important: the desire to restrain costs and increase profits may sometimes lead to the concentration of carrier traffic into a few potentially vulnerable facilities.
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