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US defence spending |
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In coming months, Congress will consider Bush administration requests for over $500bn for defence programmes. On 7 February, the administration released its budget request for FY2006, which includes $442bn for national defence. It does not include projected funding for operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere in FY2006. On 14 February, the administration submitted a request for supplemental appropriations of $82bn, of which $75bn is to cover military operations through the remainder of FY2005. It is likely that additional money will be requested later to cover costs of Iraq and Afghanistan operations in the first few months of FY2006.
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China, America and Southeast Asia |
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As China’s economic strength, diplomatic confidence and military capabilities increase, this rising power looms ever larger in the calculations of Southeast Asian governments. Some observers now fear that, if current trends towards accommodating China continue, Southeast Asian states’ freedom of manoeuvre may be compromised permanently. Yet, far from acquiescing in Beijing’s regional aspirations, Southeast Asian states continue to employ hedging strategies, with the US seen as the crucial ‘regional balancer’. There are important weaknesses in Washington’s regional strategic posture, however, and future crises could present the sub-region with precisely what it is seeking to avoid: the need to choose between America and China.
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Lessons from the Iraqi insurgency |
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There is now a fuller realisation in the US that the Iraqi insurgency has political causes and therefore warrants political responses. Some in Washington also understand that the US occupation entails military measures that intensify anti-American sentiment. There is greater appreciation of the importance of unity in the politico-military management of the counter-insurgency effort. Militarily, there is a recognition of the need to shift as much of the burden of law-enforcement and counter-insurgency to Iraqis; for coalition forces to operate within communities; and for more troops. Yet none of these problems admit to ready solutions and few are being acted upon satisfactorily.
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Towards nuclear stability in South Asia |
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The potential security agenda between India and Pakistan is wide. There could be shared advantage in dialogue across the whole military field to ease excessive concerns or misconceptions arising from the tendency, against the background of a long adversarial relationship, to place worst-case interpretations on each other’s statements, plans and actions. Nuclear stability however is of special importance. At least ten major issues would arise if the two countries intend positively to move forward in this area.
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The Quadrennial Defense Review |
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For months, staffs have been busy preparing for the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) process. The QDR is expected to set out a new ‘Strategic Framework’ based four threat concepts. It will have to consider the following: whether current levels of US military activity constitutes a more or less manageable aberration or a new standard, requiring a commensurate planning response; how to align US forces to meet the four threats identified; how to address the dichotomy between military ‘transformation’ and meeting current replenishment needs; and how to reconcile budgetary tensions between outlays on equipment and personnel.
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