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Iran’s nuclear programme |
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Despite last-minute haggling, Iran and the EU-3 (the UK, France and Germany) have reached agreement to restore a ‘temporary’ suspension of Iran’s uranium-enrichment programme. In exchange, the Europeans sponsored a resolution at the IAEA Board of Governor’s meeting, adopted on 29 November 2004, that did not refer Iran to the UN Security Council. The stage is now set for Iran and the EU-3 to enter into negotiations, scheduled to start in mid-December, to seek a long- term agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. Prospects for the talks are uncertain, however, and a key factor will be the US position on any possible Iranian–European deal.
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The transatlantic alliance |
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The Bush administration considers itself vindicated in its foreign policies by the narrow but convincing electoral mandate which the president won on 2 November. Yet it would be well-advised in its second term to worry about the eroding popular basis of the Atlantic community. Similarly, European governments cannot afford to use their disagreements with the administration, or their continuing anger over Iraq, as alibis for neglecting growing security threats. They ought also to recognise that intra-European disagreements about coping with American power – especially if stoked by shrill anti-Americanism – will hamper the project of European integration.
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Elections in Iraq |
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In late November 2004, the Interim Iraqi Government, with the encouragement of US President George W. Bush, made a firm commitment that Iraq will hold a nationwide election on 30 January, 2005. The hope in Baghdad, but also in Washington and London, is that a large majority of Iraq’s estimated 13.9 million eligible voters will indeed participate, and so give the Iraqi government the democratic legitimacy it urgently requires. But there are serious doubts that the political zeal of those demanding a nationwide ballot can be matched by the administrative and security capacities needed to deliver it.
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China’s grand strategy |
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The new inflections in China’s grand strategy suggest a deliberate effort to convey a kinder, gentler face abroad even as Beijing works to expand the opportunities for increasing its great power capabilities and status. However, success here is by no means foreordained. China may seek to avoid exacerbating regional security dilemmas, but its concomitant preparations to deal with potential separatism, territorial disputes, problems of tenuous energy supplies, and the quest for great power capabilities compel it to develop military capabilities that will cause concern in regional capitals and in Washington. The end result may be an outcome that China neither desires nor can prevent.
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Leadership change in Myanmar |
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In mid-October 2004, Myanmar’s relatively pragmatic prime minister and chief of military intelligence, General Khin Nyunt was ousted from his position within the country’s military regime – known as the State Peace and Development Council. This purge is likely to impede long-awaited political reform, imperil ceasefires with ethnic minority rebel groups, and undermine further the country's relations with Southeast Asian neighbours and Western states.
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