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China’s military leadership |
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On 16–19 September 2004, two decisions of significance for China’s military were approved. The first was the resignation of Jiang Zemin as chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) – a post he had held since 1989, and had retained even after giving up all his other positions in 2002 – and his replacement by Communist Party General Secretary and President Hu Jintao. The second was an enlargement and possible reorganisation of the CMC itself, making it look more like a ’joint chiefs of staff’ organisation capable of making key military decisions and ensuring proper coordination and implementation.
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Syrian priorities in Iraq |
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For Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, the strategic landscape shows a striking mix of risks and opportunities. So far, he seems to be navigating the landscape with some skill. His biggest challenge is to calculate how to approach the problem of a massive American military presence just across an undefended border with Iraq, and how to manage relations with a changed and potentially unruly neighbour.
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Afghanistan and the drugs trade |
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The UN Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that 3,600 metric tonnes of opium were produced in Afghanistan in 2003, with approximately 80,000 hectares under poppy cultivation – a rise of over 6% on the previous year. Cultivation was detected in 28 of 32 provinces. New areas of cultivation constitute 8,000 hectares, or around 10% of the total harvest area. Further increases in output are expected in 2004. The leading players in the drive to eradicate for poppy eradication are the US and UK governments. But their approaches contrast and to some extent conflict: for the UK, the impact of heroin originating in Afghanistan is essentially socio-economic and demands either ‘soft’ security or civil solutions; for Washington, narcotics production is directly linked to terrorist financing and warrants a primarily military response.
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Indonesia’s new president |
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After more than three years of weak government under Megawati Sukarnoputri, the election on 20 September of retired three-star general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will please not only most Indonesians, but also foreign investors and security partners. However, the new president will face major obstacles, not least his lack of majority parliamentary support, as he seeks to address the country’s daunting problems. The scope for substantial policy change may be limited.
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The US global posture review |
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The global posture review calls for a dramatic reduction in the number of American forces stationed in Germany, allied to the movement of some troops to smaller facilities in Eastern Europe. It also envisages scaling back US military deployments in East Asia, and repositioning many of the residual units in South Korea to new locations. The review might also result in the addition of military facilities in Africa, where al-Qaeda and its affiliates have been active. Many elements of the plan are as commendable as they are overdue. That said, there are some flaws that could constrain the ultimate effectiveness of the plan.
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