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The impact of missile defence in Asia |
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The transfer of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) capabilities to countries in Asia embodies difficult dilemmas for the United States. Washington must be mindful of the complications that its transfers might cause, yet equally it must be responsive to the growing expansion of the ballistic missile threat facing its friends and allies if it is to secure their cooperation in regards to both its immediate power projection objectives and its larger geopolitical interests in Asia. Even more importantly, it has to appreciate that eschewing BMD transfers would create problems of its own.
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Turkey eyes the Middle East |
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On 28–29 July 2004, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a two-day official visit to Tehran. It formed the latest in a series of efforts to boost Ankara’s economic and political ties with Iran and Syria, and came as Turkey’s relations with Israel have cooled to their frostiest state in a decade. Although there are undoubtedly many within the ruling Justice and Development Party who, for ideological reasons, would like to see currently loose ties firm into a more explicit Turkish–Syrian–Iranian regional alliance, closer political cooperation is likely to be tactical rather than strategic.
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Piracy and maritime terror in Southeast Asia |
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Since late 2003, the security of shipping in Southeast Asian ports and waters, particularly in the Malacca and Singapore Straits, has emerged as a key concern for countries in and outside the region. Despite growing anxiety over the level of maritime crime in the region, and the potentially devastating impact of maritime terrorism, US proposals for a Regional Maritime Security Initiative (RMSI) have provoked controversy amongst Southeast Asian governments. Nevertheless, discussion of the issue at the IISS ‘Shangri-La Dialogue’, a meeting of defence ministers and the wider national security establishment of the Asia-Pacific region, in Singapore in early June resulted in a degree of consensus on the issue.
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Uganda’s northern conflict |
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If the Ugandan People’s Defence Force is to be believed, the country’s 18-year northern insurgency could soon be at an end. According to official statements, the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) now commands just 250–300 serious fighters. Yet the LRA is nothing if not resilient. In weighing up the prospects for an end to the conflict, much still hinges on its external dynamics, not least the complicating issue of the fragile peace process in neighbouring southern Sudan.
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India’s troubled northeast |
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India’s northeast is suffering from a myriad local insurgencies, tribal and ethnic clashes, irredentist claims and problems associated with illegal immigration – all fuelled by narcotics trafficking, the proliferation of small arms and light weapons, and kidnappings and extortion. Delhi, whose neglect of the region has certainly exacerbated its problems, is currently focusing on a ‘carrot and stick’ approach to the insurgencies, whose transnational dimensions make this a matter of foreign as well as domestic policy.
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