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Volume 10 - Issue 3 - April 2004

The US in Central Asia
The dramatic insertion of US military power into Central Asia in 2001 was not intended to stabilise the region per se, but to counter a direct and substantive threat to US national security. Should that threat perception diminish (for example, through the extirpation or capture of senior al-Qaeda/Taliban figures), the US will need to carefully evaluate the extent to which it now wishes to engage with the region’s broader internal security dynamics, even when these sometimes impinge only marginally, if at all, on America’s own national interests.

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The 9/11 commission
The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States - the '9/11 Commission' - has issued the first of its unclassified accounts of the circumstances surrounding the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks. The release of these reports coincided with the explosive testimony of Richard Clarke, the national coordinator for counter-terrorism in the Clinton administration and senior director for counter-terrorism on the Bush National Security Council - a position from which he resigned in 2002. These events generated calls for a reorganisation of American foreign and domestic intelligence collection and analysis and appeared to corroborate previous claims about the Bush administration's failure to grasp the threat posed by al-Qaeda.

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Asia's evolution in military affairs
Throughout the Asia-Pacific region, defence planners are seeking to exploit the information-age Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) that has preoccupied their American counterparts for the last decade. Armed forces as diverse as those of Australia, China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan have begun to develop RMA-type capabilities. Prowess in information and communication technology has played an important part in the economic development of those Asia-Pacific countries where interest in military transformation is strongest, and provides a necessary technological underpinning for national efforts to benefit from the RMA.

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Sri Lanka's peace process
Sri Lanka's third parliamentary election in three-and-a-half years, held on 2 April 2004, may have resolved the power struggle between the president and the prime minister - the issue that triggered the snap polls. But it has worsened prospects for peace with the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), who are fighting for a Tamil homeland in the northeast of the country. With the Marxist Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a party that staunchly opposes concessions to the Tamils, now a coalition partner in President Chandrika Kumaratunga's newly-elected minority government, and given the ramifications of a violent split in the ranks of the LTTE itself, the fragile two-year old peace process appears in jeopardy.

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US ballistic missile defences
The US Missile Defense Agency is forging ahead to meet President George W. Bush's December 2002 directive to deploy 'a set of initial missile defense capabilities beginning in 2004.' Missile defence proponents argue that the rush to deploy is driven by strategic imperatives rather than political necessity. Critics see in it a determination to deliver, in an election year, on a longstanding Republican Party policy commitment - one which, they feel, may lead to the neglect of efforts to resist more imminent threats. The initial capability will depend on a lightly tested patchwork of midcourse interceptors, untested tracking and discrimination capabilities, a sea-based component better suited to intercept short- to medium-range missiles, and an uncertain number of Patriot batteries.

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