| Al-Qaeda targets Europe |
Before the terrorist bombings on Madrid’s commuter railway system on 11 March 2004 there had been no successful transnational Islamist terrorist attacks in North America or Europe since 11 September 2001. It appeared that the US and Europe had provisionally been able to deter al-Qaeda and its affiliates. Now it seems that al-Qaeda, having regrouped and been antagonised by the US-led intervention in Iraq, is back on the offensive and zoning in on Western targets. A major US operation must also be assumed to be on the cards. Until that is feasible, however, Europe is likely to remain the most prominent target in al-Qaeda’s calculations in light of its historical, political and cultural alignment with the US. Full text & PDF (free to all users) >>> |
| The Greater Middle East Initiative |
The hostility of the initial reactions in regional capitals probably betrays a fear that the Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI) represents a shift in the objectives of US engagement in the Middle East. In fact, the programme does depart from the Cold War-era approach to foreign aid based on the apportionment of strategic rents to friendly regimes, with little or no emphasis on normative values like pluralism or government accountability. In contrast, the GMEI reformulates American interests in the region, tacitly acknowledging that US security concerns are best served not by cultivating relationships with autocrats but by addressing the root causes of terrorism. |
| Ethnic violence in Kosovo |
On 17-18 March 2004, ethnic Albanian mobs began a concerted drive to ethnically cleanse small and vulnerable Serb and Roma (Gypsy) communities from their homes in Kosovo. The extremists who coordinated the mobs evidently calculated that their actions would seize the attention of the West and force the issue of Kosovar independence. Yet the price of independence may well now be far higher than it was before March. Indeed, behind the ritual lamentations and condemnations of Serbian leaders in Belgrade, it is possible to detect a note of discreet satisfaction; many believe that the Albanian extremists have handed them a means not only of beginning to disengage from Kosovo, but also a way of partitioning it – with Western blessing. Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>Buy this article online >>> |
| A window of opportunity on Cyprus |
The decision on 13 February 2004 by the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots to resume negotiations over the future of Cyprus was hailed as representing the best chance in 30 years to reunite the divided island. These negotiations were to take place prior to public referenda on a draft settlement, to be held in both territories in April 2004. But, as Strategic Comments went to press on 26 March, the two sides had yet to record any substantial progress. Although there was no reason to doubt that the referenda would go ahead, it was becoming increasingly uncertain whether the draft settlement would be endorsed by either community on the island; much less receive the joint approval necessary if a united Cyprus was to accede to the European Union (EU) as planned on 1 May. |
| Europe's 'big three' |
The summit meeting in Berlin on 18 February 2004 between German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, French President Jacques Chirac and British Prime Minister Tony Blair stirred controversy across Europe. Critics feared that this exercise in trilateralism heralded the advent of a much talked-about ‘Directoire’, geared to short-circuiting the European Union’s (EU) proper policy-making processes at the expense of smaller states. The reality is arguably more mundane, but the meeting nonetheless carries broad significance. Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>Buy this article online >>> |
