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Sea-change in Israel and Palestine |
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Towards the end of 2004, dramatic events transformed the Israeli-Palestinian struggle. The first was the death of Yasser Arafat, who had been both impetus and impediment to Palestinian independence. Arafat’s death removed the barriers to American re-engagement in the dispute. The second was the apparent transformation of Ariel Sharon, who denied the viability of Israeli occupation not just of Gaza, but of the West Bank. Whether the opportunities implied by these stark changes effloresce or evaporate is unknowable. But change is in the air.
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India’s conventional build-up |
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India’s defence modernisation is gathering pace. The Congress-led government elected in May 2004 has significantly increased the proportion of the country’s defence budget devoted to buying new equipment. This impressive build-up, justified by India in terms of the breadth of regional security challenges, risks coming at some strategic as well as material cost. In particular, the growing asymmetry in conventional capabilities has aroused concern in Pakistan that the subcontinent could be heading for an arms race; the potential danger is that the delicate strategic balance centred on respective nuclear deterrents could come under strain.
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The UN and international security |
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On 3 December 2004, the High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change presented its report on the role of the UN in international peace and security. The panel has produced an impressive document. The ultimate fate of the report, however, will depend on the US administration’s readiness to take the panel’s recommendations forward. Although some observers fear that the US will ignore or even undermine the work of the HLP, it is clear that the panel’s report has in fact gone a long way towards recognising the validity of US concerns about the present international order.
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Musharraf’s rule in Pakistan |
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As of the end of 2004, there was much to unsettle as well as to reassure observers of Pakistan. On the one hand, there is increasing violence by Islamic extremist and ethnic groups, and General Pervez Musharraf’s apparent decision to hold the posts of army chief and president beyond 31 December 2004 – a volte-face that flies in the face of explicit earlier commitments – could simply exacerbate internal dissent rather than safeguard stability. On the other hand, Pakistan’s economy is picking up after many years of sclerosis; there have been some notable successes against al-Qaeda; the peace process with India continues; and Pakistan-US relations are on an upswing.
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Combating transnational terrorism |
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Al-Qaeda may be increasingly dependent on local groups and subject to dispersing impulses, but it remains a viable transnational terrorist organisation. While key aspects of the US approach to the ‘global war on terror’ appear counter-productive, opportunities for diminishing al-Qaeda’s appeal have been marginally enhanced. In particular, awareness is growing in the US, as elsewhere, that there is a need to recalibrate the counter-terrorism campaign away from an over-reliance on the application ‘hard power’ and military force and towards ‘soft power’ responses; success here will not come easily, however.
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