Strategic Comments

Russia's protests: not a revolution but an awakening

A wave of anti-government protests in Russia in late 2011 has rocked its political establishment. United in anger at President Dmitry Medvedev's decision to cede his post to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, as well as at evidence of electoral fraud in recent legislative elections, up to 100,000 Russians gathered on 24 December to take part in some of the country's largest protests since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yet those who expect Russia to follow the path of Arab revolutions are likely to be disappointed.  

Durban's surprise climate deal: progress, but gaps remain 

The latest round of climate negotiations in Durban, South Africa, ended in a cliff-hanger in the early hours of 11 December. A last-minute huddle on the conference floor produced an unexpected agreement to extend the Kyoto Protocol, and a commitment to produce a replacement for it. Though the deal failed to meet what many see as the minimum cut in emissions needed to limit global warming to no more than 2°C, it was probably the best outcome that could have been hoped for given current political and economic constraints. By agreeing to keep talking, participants at least kept the prospect of effective long-term action alive. 

Things fall apart in South Africa’s ANC

A contentious political calendar is about to unfold in South Africa where the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is in the throes of an identity crisis. The year 2012 will begin with an ostentatious centenary party on 8 January when the continent's oldest liberation movement will celebrate 100 years of struggle politics. It will close with a party conference in December from which the next crop of leaders will emerge to steer the ANC and South Africa through the next few years. However, behind the festivity is a party wracked by ideological divisions and factional splits.

Bad times in Baluchistan

The Pakistani province of Baluchistan hit the headlines recently when Islamabad responded to the deaths of its soldiers in a NATO attack by closing Western military supply routes running through it. However, the area has been a source of conflict for decades as ethnic Baluch have waged a campaign for greater political and economic freedom from Islamabad. Rising Taliban and sectarian attacks have added to the violence this year.