Vilia Gelbras, Professor and Senior Researcher, Africa and Asia Institute, Moscow State University, Moscow
At the 15th Chinese Communist Party Congress in spring 2001, President of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Xiang Jemin revealed the country’s new foreign-policy strategy: to ‘go outside’. Its principal objective is to ensure that China becomes the world’s leading economic power. There are three main reasons why the PRC leadership was prompted to adopt the new strategy:
1. the limited nature of the Chinese domestic market;
2. the country’s lack of a range of natural resources; and
3. the need to attract foreign capital, as well as technical expertise and technology from abroad.
To achieve its aims, China will need to:
create some trans-national corporations;
set up businesses abroad that could play a key part in promoting Chinese goods on international markets and help the PRC to obtain essential resources; and
export capital − that is, invest overseas.
The new strategy also seeks to strengthen China’s position in the international labour market. The government is concerned that the PRC accounts for one-third of the planet’s economically-active population (2.95 billion), but only between two and five percent of the global labour force. China has set itself the goal of making up 10% of the global work force by 2010. Considering that, in 2001, its working population comprised 730 million people and the number of those unemployed in the towns and countryside was less than 200m, China is millions of workers short if it is to achieve its goal of 10% of the global work force.
Furthermore, over the past few years, the number of people leaving China for personal reasons has increased at a rate of 30% per annum. And, within the next few decades, the number of people aged between 16 and 65 years − those of working age − will grow and account for in excess of 70% of the population. As a result of the growing proportion of economically-active people in the population, China will have a huge work force at its disposal. (The population is ageing in the sense that more children will come of age and join the ranks of the economically-active.) Therefore, increasing numbers will emigrate to seek work, potentially to Russia. However, most Chinese do not consider Russia to be the ‘Promised Land’, at least, not for the moment.
In 2001, the Chinese leadership convened an international forum of Chinese people and the Hua Chiao (‘the overseas Chinese’ − those who recently left China and those who have been living abroad for some time). The aim of the forum was to launch efforts by the Chinese leadership to form stronger bonds with compatriots abroad and returned Chinese. The list of people who addressed the forum included Li Jun Huan, (chairman of the Chinese National Advisory Council and the country’s fourth most senior official), Xian Xichen (vice premier and former minister for foreign affairs), and Guo Dongpo (director of the Office of Overseas Chinese Affairs of the State Council ). They appealed to ethnic Chinese in other nations (Macao, Russia and Taiwan, as well as other Southeast Asian states) to settle in their new country of residence, establish contacts with others, and help one another to overcome difficulties. In addition, the Office of Overseas Chinese Affairs of the State Council called on overseas Chinese to make a concerted worldwide effort to contribute to China’s economy and foreign policy by enhancing links between China and other countries. Other gatherings and conferences in Japan, the US and elsewhere issued the same appeal. Guo Dongpo and his deputies were present at these meetings. The Office of Overseas Chinese Affairs whose main task was once to persuade the Hua Chiao to invest in China and solve the country’s problems is now focused on activity outside of China, endeavouring to support China’s foreign-policy strategy.
Chinese emigration, once a natural phenomenon, has become a systematic process overseen by Peking. In Russia, efforts are underway to bring Chinese migrants together in order to facilitate contact between Chinese organisations. Although these attempts have not been hugely successful to date, progress will be made eventually. Chinese newspapers are already being published in Moscow and other cities and distributed throughout Russia. It is worth pointing out that the Chinese have been quite organised in setting up home in certain regions of Russia where, until recently, they did not have a presence. One such place is Pyatigorsk in Russia’s north Caucasus. The Chinese have not tried to conceal the fact that this town was chosen for two reasons: to afford them a route from China into the Caucasus, Ukraine and Russia’s south; and to impede the flow of Turkish goods into Russia.
The Chinese community in Moscow – which is the largest and wealthiest foreign community in the city – has a whole range of firms and organisations at its disposal that allows it not only to exist but also to expand. There are firms dealing with the influx of Chinese into Russia, helping them to settle, or to set up in business. These firms are also able to assist them if they wish to move to a European country in the Schengen zone. Other organisations offer legal, financial and other services, including sexual services.
There has been much discussion in the Chinese press in Moscow (which publishes six newspapers in total) about those members of the Chinese community who have managed to accumulate capital and how it should be invested. This is a wonderful opportunity. Their intention to invest in Russia should be welcomed. The problem, though, is that they have created various types of business within the ‘black market’ or ‘grey economy’ that are detrimental to the Russian economy.
In examining problems linked to Chinese immigrants, it should be noted that Russia is gradually turning into a country of migrants. There is no alternative if Russia’s economy is to develop. The state of its work force is such that, according to the Ministry for Economic Development, by 2004, 1.7m job vacancies will be unfilled, a figure that is set to rise in subsequent years.
Chinese, Koreans (from South and North Korea) and Vietnamese are the most competitively viable of those migrating from the Far East. It seems that they will make up the main contingent of foreign workers. What should be done in such a situation? The migrants who have arrived in Russia will never be able to fill all of the present vacancies because most of them cannot speak Russian and do not possess the skills that the economy lacks.
In seeking to deal with these problems, Russia could learn from other parts of the world. For instance, there is a widespread practice in the construction industry of allowing foreign companies to tender for jobs. For example, they would bring workers from China to fulfil the contract, and then the workers would go back home when the job is complete. Another option is to attract more foreign students into higher education in Russia. China’s expensive, yet inferior education system, has led many parents even to send their children abroad for primary schooling. It is estimated that China spends $1bn a year on child education. 60,000 Chinese are studying in the US alone. Many countries have learnt that studying abroad is the most common form of legal migration to another country. We need to take heed of this fact and attempt to entice the Chinese to study at Russia’s universities. To achieve this, however, the standard of teaching in our institutions needs to improve.
Demographic trends are important in this regard. The decline in Russia’s birth rate will lead to teachers and lecturers only being employed on a part-time basis or perhaps even being laid off. Attracting students from China, therefore, would certainly be advantageous to Russian higher education establishments. Studying in Russia for four to five years would allow an international pupil to master the language and to gain those skills that the Russian economy desperately requires. Legislation should be implemented to allow foreign graduates from Russian universities the opportunity to live and work here. I would hope that those who opt to leave would nevertheless return home a friend of Russia’s.
Russia also needs to take a serious look at the Strategy for the Economic Development of Siberia and the Far East. This document was requested by President Vladimir Putin, drawn up by Siberia’s leading politicians and academics, and eventually agreed on with the Ministry of Economic Development. The Strategy makes some proposals for diversifying Siberia’s economy away from its reliance on raw-material exports. The existing proposals fall short of what is required. Furthermore, current demographic and migration trends should be taken into account. The Strategy does not address the concern that large numbers of Siberians are leaving the region permanently due to the harsh conditions. There are no concrete proposals for addressing labour-force shortages. Migrants from China could be the answer to labour shortage in Siberia, especially if the Siberian economy is diversified to develop new businesses and to make better use of the intellectual potential of its residents, which is one of the Strategy’s goals. The economies of both China and Russia could benefit if more Chinese immigrants came to Russia.
