Sergei Tarasevich
Head of the Territorial Agency for the Russian Ministry for the Federation and National and Migration Policy
1. Population crisis in Russia’s Northwest as a socio-economic phenomenon
In 1999 Russia’s total population fell by 768,400; in the first six months of 2000 it declined by 425,000. In total, over the last 10 years, (taking into account net positive migration of 3 million), Russia’s population has decreased by 3.2 million.
The rate of population decline in Russia is increasing. At present it stands at 0.5% per annum. It is forecast that this rate will rise to 1.2% by the year 2020, and to 2.2% by the year 2030. By population size, in 2002 Russia fell from 4th place in the ranking of most populous states in the world to 7th place with fewer inhabitants than Brazil, Indonesia, and Pakistan. It is expected that by the year 2025, Russia will have plummeted to 14th rank at which point her population will be only just bigger than that of Vietnam’s and Ethiopia’s, but it will be just under half that of Brazil’s, one third of the USA’s and one twelfth of China’s.
The demographic decline should not be attributed to genetic factors, nor can we suppose that market forces will halt the process. Strategic state programmes which may serve to unite the efforts being made by academics, managers, industrialists and businessmen need to be initiated on a federal, regional, and municipal level. This problem is addressed by a ‘Concept for a demographic policy for the period until 2005’ which was approved by the Russian government on the March 15, 2001.
The Northwest region of Russia is one of the areas where this problem has reached a critical level. In 2000, the rate of negative population growth increased. In St Petersburg the population is decreasing at a rate of 0.95% per annum, in Leningrad oblast by 1.21%, in Novgorod oblast by 1.24% and Pskov oblast by an astonishing 1.49%.
At present certain parts of Russia’s Northwest (Leningrad oblast in particular) are maintaining a constant net population on account of the number of migrants coming into the region (positive net migration). However, it should be pointed out that the potential for in-migration is limited and there are no prospects that the number of new migrants coming into the region could possibly offset the 15-25% real fall in population numbers. An especially critical situation has arisen on the periphery of Leningrad oblast. Population density on the eastern outskirts of Leningrad oblast is now less than one person per km2.
2. Two aspects of the population crisis: population decline and population structure
There have been some changes in society’s structure such as the rising average age of the population and the resulting crisis over labour productivity, the ageing electorate and the threat of gerontocracy. Fundamental ideas and values in society are changing, for example on the perceived role of the family and large families. In addition, family ties are not as close as they once were, a concept which at one point was considered essential for social cohesion.
The strategic solution could be firstly, to take measures to slow down the catastrophic depopulation and secondly, for some of the positive aspects of slow depopulation such as reduced unemployment figures, fewer housing problems and less expenditure on social welfare to contribute to a subsequent stabilisation and improvement of the demographic situation.
So, without taking the into account regional quotas on foreign workers, the diminishing and unskilled workforce which was once a problem of the past, will become a hindrance again in the future. If this process of declining depopulation continues, any socio-economic projects that are in the pipeline will be rendered pointless because the people they are directed at will not exist!
3. The nature of the population crisis is not so much linked to the increase in deaths, as to the fall in birth rates.
Average life expectancy in Russia has decreased. In 1992 it was 62.5 years for men and 73 years for women but in 2000, it had dropped to 56.1 years and 66.4 years respectively, according to the World Health Organisation. This decline was brought about, to a significant degree by the rise in deaths linked to pollution and crime. It is also related to people’s concern for their social security.
4. Migration – is it a result of the demographic crisis or caused by people’s security concerns?
In order to answer this question, the process of migration which has recently been occurring in Northwest Russia, in particular, in St Petersburg and Leningrad oblast, needs to be characterised. The current economic growth which is taking place in Russia has been accompanied by an increase in population turnover compared with a sharp fall in the early 1990s.
Forced migration has certainly played its part in bringing about this trend. The Territorial Agencies for the Russian Ministry for the Federation and National and Migration Policy has registered more than 50,000 forced migrants in the North-western Federal District. During the first few years after the break-up of the Soviet Union the overwhelming majority of forced migrants were ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers returning from the former Soviet Republics. However, in the last three or four years there has been an increase in the total number of immigrants applying for asylum or who have already received asylum status or have been granted temporary refuge status in accordance with the International Russian Refugee Law and the 1951 United Nations Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, which Russia joined at the end of 1992.
In addition to the above factors, there is another major reason why Russia’s immigration situation is in the state it is. Unlike other countries, Russia has a much larger number of illegal immigrants than the official data show. Over the last few years they have been living in private accommodation without registering with the authorities and they work in small businesses or as traders.
Some of them have been able to make their way onto Russian soil via Russia’s ‘transparent’ southern borders. Others did not return to their homeland after studying in Russian universities and some of them came to the Russian Federation together with the Soviet troops returning from Afghanistan in 1989. The immigrant population in St Petersburg (and thus in the North-western federal district) is mostly made up of Afghans. Up to now, the overwhelming majority of them have preferred to remain illegally, doing their utmost to use their stay in Russia’s border regions to illegally infiltrate the neighbouring Scandinavian and European countries.
The Russian Federation has still not yet passed any laws on the legal status of foreign citizens and has continued to use a modified version of an old Soviet decree dating from 1981. This law however has no hope of serving as an adequate legal basis for the fight against illegal immigration because, in principle, there was no such problem with immigration at the time this law was originally introduced. Accordingly, not one of the law enforcement agencies has responsibility for dealing with the problem of illegal immigrants. It is absolutely essential we introduce, without further ado, basic norms and laws and create a special body or ‘immigration police’ in order to successfully tackle the problem of immigration control, fight illegal immigration and find ways of preventing it in the first place.
At the present moment, there are no reliable data on the number of illegal immigrants. There are such huge discrepancies between the data provided by the various departments that numbers range from 1.5 million to 10 million illegal immigrants in Russia. Up until recently, the estimate of 10,000 – 30,000 illegal immigrants in St Petersburg was generally accepted. It was assumed that they had made no attempt to gain legal status due to the complex procedures in applying for asylum status. Indeed, on October 1 2001 a total of only 168 refugees was registered in St Petersburg and Leningrad oblast along with 51 cases which were under consideration.
Thus we assumed that we would be faced with thousands of applications from these ‘illegals’ when article 12 of the Refugee Law on granting refugee status came into effect at the end of Summer 2000. However, during the final months of 2001 little more than 300 people received temporary refugee status. It is quite incredible that only 1-2% of illegal immigrants wanted to receive some sort of official status, with the rest preferring to remain as they were. It is most likely that the recorded figures for the numbers of illegal immigrants in St Petersburg are far too high and that, in actual fact, there are only a few thousand living in the city.
Furthermore, after the events of September 11 and the launch of the US-led anti-terrorism operations in Afghanistan, based on these figures, one might assume that there would be a rise in the number of applications from Afghans because they became fearful of being constantly stopped and searched by ever suspicious law enforcement officers. However, this did not take place on the scale which had been expected. It is possible that some of the Afghans returned to their homeland by illegal means in order to take part in liberating their country; something that has been unofficially confirmed by certain members of the Afghan community in St Petersburg. It is unlikely, however that this is the reason and this theory can account for only the small minority.
Conclusions
From the above, the following conclusions can be made:
There are no reliable data in Russia on the number of illegal immigrants resident on Russian territory.
Although the figures available have been greatly misstated, the problem is a critical one and no measures have been put in place to resolve it.
It is absolutely essential to bring in legislation on the prevention of, and fight against, illegal immigration.
It is necessary to set up a special law enforcement agency or immigration police, capable of efficiently dealing with illegal immigration.
A special approach should be taken when addressing the problem of Afghans living illegally in Russia and in particular St Petersburg with special attention paid to political, economic, and social factors.
Due to evolving demographic and economic trends, Russia has a particular interest in the influx of immigrants and ethnic Russians wishing to be repatriated.
Recommendations
Migration and in particular immigration (particularly illegal immigration) could be considered a destabilising factor for Russia at present. In order to deal with this issue it is essential that a migration policy is swiftly introduced. This policy needs to be oriented towards creating a system of controlled, limited and selective migration. It should also set up and implement a system of regional priorities and restrictions. This would include for example, relocation expenses and other social security benefits under economically determined quotas for accepting new migrants.
The following should be essential components of any strategic plans for the development of the region:
- Socially-oriented projects which should address how to create the right conditions for attracting more workers including those who have migrated from other regions. i.e. the construction of living quarters, setting up and/or adapting existing, training and retraining schemes, social security benefits, and the development of social infrastructure in the region.
- Ensuring that counselling programmes are set up for families especially those with lots of children. These should in particular provide the children and their parents with additional political status (the right to vote for example, if only on a regional scale).
- Setting up a system that will allow immigrants to adjust to their new home and to be voluntarily assimilated. It should focus, in particular, on fostering tolerance between local residents and new arrivals.
