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Friday 8 December 2006, 9.00 pm
SPEAKERS
Dr John Chipman CMG
Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS
HRH Prince Muqrin Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud
Chief of General Intelligence, Saudi Arabia
The Third IISS Regional Security Summit was opened by Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive. He welcomed delegates to what he said was a ‘unique exercise in regional security diplomacy’. The Manama Dialogue was an informal institution at which delegation leaders – ministers and national security advisers – could meet bilaterally and multilaterally without having to draw up a final communiqué. This meant that ‘a good deal of real diplomacy can happen’.
The issues facing the Dialogue were pressing. While the political, economic and military situation in Iraq was worsening, Iran’s ambitions to assume a central position in the region were arousing concern amongst its Arab neighbours and elsewhere. Demographic realities and sectarian divisions presented unusual challenges. Regional security arrangements seemed to be ‘subject to an ever-shifting political arithmetic involving six states plus one or two or three or four or more’.
Noting that the Gulf Cooperation Council heads of state were meeting the following day, Chipman thanked the heads of the delegations of the six GCC states for the tremendous personal effort they had made to attend the Manama Dialogue. He thanked the Kingdom of Bahrain for its commitment and support.
The keynote address was delivered by HRH Prince Muqrin Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Chief of General Intelligence, Saudi Arabia. Introduced by Professor François Heisbourg, IISS Chairman, Prince Muqrin said the security of the Gulf region was of vital interest to the entire world, but there were ‘still numerous obstacles which prevent the realization of this objective’.
Describing Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons as ‘the most dangerous strategic threat at the present time to the security of the Gulf’, he said this had made it necessary for some regional countries to take part in the nuclear arms race. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the region would increase the complexity of security issues, encouraging nations to build alliances with those possessing nuclear technology and leading moderate states to start carrying out nuclear programmes, either overtly or in secret, to create a balance and defend their interests.
Most of the region’s problems were ‘closely connected with the primary issue of the Middle East, which is the Palestinian issue’, Prince Muqrin said. International powers needed to play their parts ‘with complete detachment and neutrality’ to produce a just solution that would allow peaceful coexistence among the region’s peoples, including Israel, on foundations of justice and equality and in accordance with the Arab peace initiative of 2002.
The instability and sectarian conflict in Iraq, which was attracting and exporting terrorists, was threatening the security and stability of Gulf states. All must cooperate in helping Iraq, while not interfering in its internal affairs. There was no doubt, Prince Muqrin said, ‘that the continuation of the foreign presence in the region, including the occupation of Iraq, is bound to help increase instability and contribute significantly to the creation of extremist elements there’.
The region’s stability was threatened by the growth of sectarian and ethnic movements, ‘and the tendency of certain groups to use violence and extremism within the societies of the Gulf’. Therefore, regional security must rest on foundations ‘which take into account the sectarian composition of Gulf societies in order to create a political union and a single social organization that would ensure the Gulf’s security and unity’, Prince Muqrin said.
One factor threatening regional security was the growth of unemployment, coupled with foreign labour. This had become a threat to security, with the rise in the legal and illegal foreign workforce producing economic, political, security and social consequences.
Questions and answers
Alexander Nicoll, IISS Director of Defence Analysis and Publications, asked whether the Prince’s remarks on the foreign military presence in Iraq should be interpreted as a wish to see American and other forces leaving Iraq, and if so, in what time frame. Prince Muqrin replied that this would be decided by the United States, but the presence of any foreign forces would provide an excuse to others to foment instability in the region. In his opinion, it was not yet the right time for American forces to leave Iraq, but a timetable should be established.
Jim Hoagland, Associate Editor and Chief Foreign Correspondent, The Washington Post, asked whether, given the Prince’s remarks about Israel’s nuclear arsenal, Saudi Arabia might consider obtaining nuclear weapons in the future. The Prince said it would not.
Dr Bassam Tibi, Professor of International Relations, University of Göttingen, said Islamic groups and militias were damaging the reputation of the Muslim religion. He pointed out that Islam was a religion of forgiveness, and asked what could be done to protect its reputation. Prince Muqrin replied that the Manama Dialogue was one step towards this. ‘We are always trying to explain ourselves, to explain to our friends, to explain to the world that Islam is not this way.’ There were extremists in many countries, terrorists who said they were committing acts for the cause of Islam. ‘It is our duty’, he said, to explain that in Islam, God forbids the killing of any innocent souls. Shia and Sunni Muslims alike had gone to Mecca and signed an agreement forbidding the killing of any Muslims in Iraq. ‘We are supporting that.’ But unfortunately it would be necessary for Muslim countries ‘have more dialogues to explain to ourselves and to the world’.
Dr Volker Perthes, Director, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, asked what measures Saudi Arabia was taking to curb the flow of funds across the border to rebels in Iraq. Prince Muqrin replied that the government was doing its utmost to make the 800km border safe, in coordination with the Iraqi government and US forces. It was spending ‘millions’ to reinforce border security to prevent Saudis from crossing into Iraq.
David Ignatius, Associate Editor and Columnist, The Washington Post, asked about concerns that sectarian violence in Iraq could spill into neighbouring countries. How serious was this threat and what was Saudi Arabia doing to prevent it? He also asked the Prince to comment on a suggestion by a Saudi analyst that Saudi troops could be sent to Iraq in case there was a very violent situation there after the withdrawal of American troops. Prince Muqrin said there was no question of sending any troops to Iraq, unless this was a decision of the Arab League. However, Saudi Arabia was taking the threat from Iraqi sectarian violence very seriously, and so should all Gulf countries. ‘We’ve been living here for centuries and centuries without these things. This is all the doing of these terrorist organisations who have been misled. Unfortunately our young people are being recruited every day to do evil works.’ He pointed out that the people of Bahrain have for long been living side by side, but someone had seen the opportunity for ‘brainwashing’. It was up to politicians and wise religious figures to play their role in countering this.
