Plenary session No.5
Regional framework for Gulf security
Sunday 9 December 2007, 12.00 pm
SPEAKERS
Zhai Jun
Assistant Foreign Minister for West Asian, North African and African Affairs, China
Dr Tariq Al Hashimi
Vice President, Iraq
This final session of the Manama Dialogue continued a theme of previous summits by examining the security situation and security structures that exist within the Gulf, and how national and international actors can bolster regional security.
Zhai Jun, China’s Assistant Foreign Minister for West Asian, North African and African Affairs, noted the importance that the international community attaches to Gulf security, arising from the region’s political, economic and cultural significance. Given its substantial energy reserves, the Gulf had a significant role in ensuring global stability and prosperity. But the region was far from peaceful. Long-standing issues remained unresolved, and new crises had emerged. Traditional and non-traditional threats were putting security and stability at risk.
The minister offered views on Gulf security. Firstly, promoting mutual trust through dialogue and cooperation was essential to easing tension and achieving long-term stability, and a frank exchange of views was necessary to achieve this. This could lay the foundation for a security framework in the Gulf. It was on this basis, Zhai continued, that China supported efforts by Baghdad to seek reconciliation through dialogue. He also said that the Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved peacefully through political and diplomatic means and that China supported the international non-proliferation regime.
Secondly, mutual political trust and economic cooperation were important pillars supporting security in the Gulf. Since its inception, the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) had made significant progress in promoting economic integration, deepening mutual political trust and developing security cooperation. These successful experiences provided examples for developing a more wide-ranging security framework in the region. Thirdly, Gulf security was closely linked to the overall situation in the Middle East and an early, just, reasonable and comprehensive settlement of this issue on the basis of UN resolutions, the principle of land for peace and Arab peace initiatives would create favourable conditions for Gulf stability.
China attached great importance to security and stability in the Gulf, following the five principles of peaceful co-existence in developing its relations. Beijing supported and actively participated in international efforts to resolve regional ‘hot issues’ and played a constructive role through appointing special envoys, providing humanitarian aid, and participating in peacekeeping and reconstruction activities.
Tariq Al Hashimi, Vice President of Iraq, said regional security could only be achieved with a strong Iraq, with modern and capable armed forces. Partitioning Iraq, or weakening its central government, would lead to instability, which would be exported to regional countries and would encourage other states to interfere in Iraqi affairs. Thus regional security required, he said, a strong, stabilised and unified Iraq ‘with agreements and arrangements by regional common will’.
Permanent security improvements required the achievement of a number of factors: a national political agreement on governance structure; integration of economic, social and judicial policies with national-security requirements; regional arrangements aimed at allaying fears of regional states and ending interference in Iraqi affairs; full sovereignty and an end to Chapter VII UN provisions relating to the country; and military and security forces capable of meeting national security requirements. Actions on the political level could help to halt a focus on religious and ethnic issues and lead to a more national political focus. Unifying concepts and views on nationally disputed issues could lead to constitutional amendment, revision of the electoral law and early elections. The views of the administration had been set out in the ‘National Iraqi Convention’ and a programme designed to contain and isolate terrorism and violence.
Although the focus remained on Iraq’s internal situation, an integrated programme that would see further Iraqi cooperation with the GCC countries was also of importance. This cooperation could see common regional measures to ensure non-interference in Iraqi affairs; could help to resolve disputes between Iraq and neighbouring states, including debt write-offs and compensation; could help Iraqi refugees in neighbouring states; could ensure a strong presence in reconstruction activities; and could accelerate national reconciliation and political and military regeneration. Meanwhile, activity on the international level could assist Iraq by providing guarantees for the stability and territorial integrity of Iraq as well as removing the UN Chapter VII provisions. Such international actions may dissuade states from interfering in Iraq’s affairs – possibly leading to a UN Security Council resolution – and assist in the repatriation of Iraq’s refugees and exiled intellectuals. Lastly, the UN could have an intensified role in Iraq, ensuring strict control over human rights issues, while a media campaign could be useful in assisting the write-off of compensation requests and debts.
Questions and answers
Dr Mohammed Abdul Ghaffar Abdulla, Bahrain’s Ambassador to the European Union, asked whether the basis of the Iraqi state, constructed during the time of the Coalition Provisional Authority, should be changed to help achieve political stability and bring the population together on a ‘new basis’. Noting that most people saw China’s role in terms of economic and commercial activities, he asked whether China was considering a new strategic vision in its policies relating to the Gulf.
Dr Patrick Cronin, then IISS Director of Studies, asked the speakers to consider whether Asian powers should be doing more for regional security beyond diplomacy. Did China see India and Japan as having congruent approaches towards energy security?
Dr Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at the Nixon Center, noted that Asian involvement in the region was not wholly based on energy dependency. There was a large Asian population in the Gulf region as well as substantial investment. He then asked whether China supported a US–Iraq security relationship as an essential part of the security environment.
Zhai responded that China enjoyed a good trading relationship with Gulf nations and the booming Chinese economy saw a large part of its energy demand met by the Gulf. China was willing to play a greater role in ensuring energy security and was willing to strengthen consultations with other Asian powers to help achieve this objective. China also hoped to see Iraq improve. Most important to this was national reconciliation, which could serve as a basis for economic reconstruction. To achieve this, all factions needed to be involved in the political process.
Al Hashimi said it was clear that the major problem in Iraq was political in nature and that national reconciliation must improve. While progress had been made since 2003, with an elected parliament and a constitution, differences still existed over the constitution, and some aspects of the political process needed review.
Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean, a former UK government minister, asked whether democracy was in fact an essential ingredient of national reconciliation in Iraq. Had the push for democracy gone too fast? Had it not served to heighten differences? Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, then asked the Vice President to comment on whether the forthcoming provincial elections in Iraq would affect the process of national reconciliation. Dr Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, asked the Iraqi Vice President how long he wanted US troops to remain in Iraq and how the ‘Anbar awakening’ would as a political movement be integrated into the national political process. He also asked whether China would back the UN role in the Middle East with resources and diplomacy.
Lieutenant-General Hussein Dohi, Deputy Chief of Staff for Training, Iraqi army, said the army represented all parts of society. Were it not for the sacrifices of the army such progress as has been seen could not have been made. All needed to join forces, both regionally and internationally, to reinforce security.
Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, member of Turkey’s parliament and Vice President, Foreign Affairs Department, AK Party, asked the Vice President whether there was any concrete policy for dealing with Iraqi IDPs and refugees.
Zhai supported Iraq’s democratic process but said it should be promoted in accordance with national conditions. China always supported the role of the United Nations in Iraq and China, as a P5 member, and was ready and willing to provide assistance. Pressed on the Iran nuclear issue, he said China was opposed to nuclear proliferation, believed countries had the right to peaceful nuclear power, and that differences on this issue should be resolved through negotiation. China had been involved in international consultations and would push for peaceful resolution through dialogue.
Al Hashimi said that the choice of democracy had been made by the Iraqi people, through a referendum and elections. While it was true that the process had taken place in a very short timeframe and was perhaps not suited to the conditions which then existed, it remained the choice of the Iraqi people and would not be reversed. The provincial elections, he said, were necessary due to ‘imbalances’ in many provinces and continuing instability, though it was necessary to create an election law in the province and to clarify the roles of central and provincial governments.
Regarding the United States, he said Iraq needed a strong and honest partner. A security agreement with the US would be a good thing, but should be decided by the Iraqi people and parliament. Iraq could also sign bilateral agreements with other countries. The ‘Anbar awakening’ showed provincial populations taking some responsibility for ensuring their own security. But there should be controls and safeguards to ease fears about this model and about the appearance of militias. On refugees, Al Hashimi said regional countries and the international community must all help Iraq. IDPs did receive assistance from the government, but the real problem was refugees, and he thanked Syria and Jordan for their assistance, which had put pressure on their economies. Refugees must return, because they constituted an important part of Iraq’s human resources.
