Australian Financial Review
Iraq could produce a nuclear bomb within months if it could buy or steal radioactive material from abroad, according to a new report by a leading independent international defence think-tank.
But the 75-page report, by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, concluded that without a supply of enriched uranium from overseas it would be difficult for Iraq to create nuclear weapons because it was not able to develop its own fissile material.
The report also concluded Iraq had probably been successful in hiding stocks of chemical and biological weapons from UN weapons inspectors.
And it said Iraq had the capacity to manufacture new stocks of both biological and chemical agents and could deliver this material with up to 12 Al-Hussein missiles, which had a range of 650km enough to reach regional neighbours like Israel, Iran, Turkey or Kuwait, but not European capitals like London, Paris or Berlin.
The assessment partially backs the case against Iraq actively being built by the US and the UK to justify military action, although its tone is more cautious than pronouncements by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US officials that Iraq poses an immediate nuclear threat to Britain and other western nations.
The report was drawn up by sifting all available evidence of Iraq's activities in the "missing years" since UN weapons inspectors left the country in 1998, but without the benefit of American and British secret intelligence.
A "dossier" of evidence against Iraq to be published by the British Government next week is said to contain more up-to-date intelligence information, but will not be seen to have the independent status of the IISS report.
"We certainly believe Saddam Hussein has the ability to put together a nuclear weapon in a matter of months, were he able to obtain fissile material," IISS director John Chipman said.
"Within a year he would be able to put it on a ballistic missile," Dr Chipman said, although before then Iraq could deliver a nuclear weapon with a plane or by some other terrorist means.
"And we certainly believe he has retained important stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons from his pre-98 stockpiles and that civilian infrastructure could be diverted to create new stock."
Dr Chipman said the IISS had not had formal contact with any government in drawing up its report, although it had sought information from its own government sources. He said Downing Street had been provided with a copy of the document.
