Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source of analysis on international security and political/military issues. Published ten times a year, with five articles in each issue, Strategic Comments offer insight of consistent authority, selectivity and policy relevance to its core readership of policy-makers, journalists, business executives and foreign affairs analysts. Strategic Comments’ analysis has focused on South Asia on a number of occasions:
Volume 12, Issue 7
Countering Naxalite Violence in India
Nearly 300 people were killed by Naxalites (Maoists) between January and April 2006 – a level of violence that outstripped that in Kashmir for the first time. In mid-April 2006 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh described the Naxalites as India’s ‘single biggest internal security challenge’, associating them with terrorism following the July 11 Mumbai bombings. Yet, attempts by the central and provincial governments to tackle this low-intensity guerrilla war lack coherence and focus.
Volume 12, Issue 6
Terror in India: Mumbai bombings
The 11 July 2006 bomb blasts in Mumbai (formerly Bombay), which killed 207 people and injured a further 714, were the deadliest terrorist attacks since those of 11 September 2001 on the United States. The seven bombs, placed on suburban trains, exploded in an 11-minute period and paralysed the transportation and communication networks of India’s financial and commercial capital. Not only did the attacks put into sharp relief some of the tensions in Indian society and the wide array of terrorist threats, they also patently underscored an urgent need to bolster the country’s intelligence capabilities.
Volume 11, Issue 10
US-India nuclear energy cooperation
The proposal for civil nuclear energy cooperation between the United States and India that President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced on 18 July 2005 portends profound changes to the nuclear non-proliferation regime and a significant shift in strategic relations. But before the deal can be consummated, it must win approval from the US Congress and the members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Although the Bush administration hopes to secure both by May 2006, this will require Washington to lobby very hard and New Delhi to accept compromises.
Volume 11, Issue 6
India's naval posture
In July–August 2005, India’s first aircraft carrier-led deployment to Southeast Asia took place. The initiative was indicative of the degree to which Asia now occupies an increasingly important place in India’s naval outlook. Its maritime doctrine, published in April 2004, conceives of the arc from the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca as a legitimate area of political, military and economic interest. The Indian Navy’s prompt relief assistance to neighbouring states in the wake of the tsunami of December 2004, meanwhile, increased its confidence about undertaking a larger role in the maintenance of regional stability. The key to the Indian Navy’s new engagement of Asia lies in its assessments of and interactions with the US and Chinese navies.
Volume 11, Issue 3
Nuclear Safety and Security in South Asia - An agenda for risk reduction
In their progressive emergence as nuclear-weapon powers India and Pakistan have taken on grave responsibilities. Both in their own and in the wider global interest, they must not just ensure strategic stability and the avoidance of nuclear war, but also the safety and security of their growing armouries at all times. At the level of basic principle these responsibilities can be summarised simply: that while remaining evidently and dependably available to sustain deterrence of war, nuclear weapons should never be discharged accidentally or without proper top-level authorisation; and that neither weapons nor related material, equipment or know-how should ever come into the hands of irresponsible actors.
Volume 11, Issue 2
On 25 March 2005, after months of secret deliberation, US President George W. Bush finally telephoned India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to personally inform him that the United States would resume the sale of F-16 combat aircraft to Pakistan. Singh apparently conveyed his ‘grave disappointment’, but New Delhi's public response was uncharacteristically muted. Indeed, Bush administration representatives have expressed quiet confidence about the value of their wider strategy. Here, India and Pakistan are seen as representing different kinds of strategic opportunities. The United States has now decided not just to bolster Pakistan, but also to help India become a major world power.
Volume 11, Issue 1
Towards nuclear stability in South Asia - A prospectus for progress
The potential security agenda between India and Pakistan is wide. There could be shared advantage in dialogue across the whole military field to ease excessive concerns or misconceptions arising from the tendency, against the background of a long adversarial relationship, to place worst-case interpretations on each other’s statements, plans and actions. Nuclear stability however is of special importance. At least ten major issues would arise if the two countries intend positively to move forward in this area.
Volume 10, Issue 10
Musharraf's rule in Pakistan - Consolidation and controversy
As of the end of 2004, there was much to unsettle as well as to reassure observers of Pakistan. On the one had, there is increasing violence by Islamic extremist and ethnic groups, and General Pervez Musharraf’s apparent decision to hold the posts of army chief and president beyond 31 December 2004 – a volte-face that flies in the face of explicit earlier commitments – could simply exacerbate internal dissent rather than safeguard stability. On the other hand, Pakistan’s economy is picking up after many years of sclerosis; there have been some notable successes against al-Qaeda; the peace process with India continues; and Pakistan-US relations are on an upswing.
Volume 10, Issue 10
India's conventional build-up - Unsettling the strategic balance?
India’s defence modernisation is gathering pace. The Congress-led government elected in May 2004 has significantly increased the proportion of the country’s defence budget devoted to buying new equipment. This impressive build-up, justified by India in terms of the breadth of regional security challenges, risks coming at some strategic as well as material cost. In particular, the growing asymmetry in conventional capabilities has aroused concern in Pakistan that the subcontinent could be heading for an arms race; the potential danger is that the delicate strategic balance centred on respective nuclear deterrents could come under strain.
Volume 10, Issue 6
India’s northeast is suffering from a myriad local insurgencies, tribal and ethnic clashes, irredentist claims and problems associated with illegal immigration – all fuelled by narcotics trafficking, the proliferation of small arms and light weapons, and kidnappings and extortion. Delhi, whose neglect of the region has certainly exacerbated its problems, is currently focusing on a ‘carrot and stick’ approach to the insurgencies, whose transnational dimensions make this a matter of foreign as well as domestic policy.
Volume 10, Issue 6
The transfer of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) capabilities to countries in Asia embodies difficult dilemmas for the United States. Washington must be mindful of the complications that its transfers might cause, yet equally it must be responsive to the growing expansion of the ballistic missile threat facing its friends and allies if it is to secure their cooperation in regards to both its immediate power projection objectives and its larger geopolitical interests in Asia. Even more importantly, it has to appreciate that eschewing BMD transfers would create problems of its own.
Volume 10, Issue 4
Following the surprise general election defeat of the National Democratic Alliance at the hands of a Congress-led coalition, the new Indian government, headed by Manmohan Singh as prime minister, decided to postpone the first set of talks on nuclear confidence building measures with Islamabad, which had been scheduled for 25–26 May. This was largely – and understandably – a result of the extended and confused political transition. That said, the arrival of the new government is expected to result in changes – in style, and, to some extent in substance – to Indian foreign and security policy.
Volume 10, Issue 3
Sri Lanka's third parliamentary election in three-and-a-half years, held on 2 April 2004, may have resolved the power struggle between the president and the prime minister - the issue that triggered the snap polls. But it has worsened prospects for peace with the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), who are fighting for a Tamil homeland in the northeast of the country. With the Marxist Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a party that staunchly opposes concessions to the Tamils, now a coalition partner in President Chandrika Kumaratunga's newly-elected minority government, and given the ramifications of a violent split in the ranks of the LTTE itself, the fragile two-year old peace process appears in jeopardy.
Volume 10, Issue 1
Dialogue between India and Pakistan - Major hurdles ahead
On 18 February 2004, after three days of official-level 'talks on talks' in Islamabad, India and Pakistan agreed to resume their bilateral 'composite dialogue' in May-June 2004. This move followed the dramatic joint statement by India's Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf on the sidelines of a regional conference on 6 January. In this, they agreed to restart a peace process that had been suspended for the past three years,. Notwithstanding the significance of these meetings, the India-Pakistan peace process is fraught with problems and difficulties.
Volume 9, Issue 9
South Asia’s nuclear navies - Sea-based contention
A new dimension to Indo-Pakistani nuclear rivalry is fast emerging at sea. As India's negotiations with Russia for the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines near completion, flight tests of a new generation of Indian naval missiles are proceeding apace. On 23 November, India conducted a sea-based test of its new supersonic and potentially nuclear-capable cruise missile - BrahMos - for the third time in as many weeks. While Pakistan will be hard-pressed to match such capabilities, these developments will boost Islamabad's own aspiration for a sea-based nuclear capability, thereby further complicating South Asia's already complex security dynamic.
Volume 9, Issue 1
Prospects for peace in Sri Lanka - Another false dawn?
Peace negotiations between the Sri Lankan government and the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which the two sides have managed to sustain since February 2002, have fared better than most observers had dared to hope. But they have deliberately skirted around the most difficult issues - including disarmament mechanisms, the shape of a federal constitution, the concerns of minority groups and the sensitivities of neighbouring powers such as India. These issues now have to be tackled. Concerns remain that the LTTE may be using the negotiations only to consolidate its hold on the northern and eastern parts of the island. Divisions within the government, and opposition from radical Sinhalese nationalists, meanwhile, will increase the difficulty of finding a settlement agreeable to all sides.
Volume 8, Issue 5
Prospects for Pakistan - Musharraf’s tightrope walk
The events of 11 September brought a dramatic reversal in Pakistan’s regional security role and held out the prospect of a transformation in its longer-term fortunes. Washington’s ultimatum, inviting nations to be ‘with us or with the terrorists’, presented Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf with both dangers and opportunities. He joined the anti-terrorist effort, and in the process jettisoned Islamabad’s decade-long effort to establish a client government in Afghanistan, because he hoped to obtain support for his reform agenda and acquire international respectability. Musharraf also hoped, with less foundation, to keep a ‘firewall’ between US-led anti-terrorist operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s support for the insurgency in Kashmir. At issue is whether Islamabad’s policy changes will last, and whether Musharraf can keep his domestic support base together. To do so, he needs in the short term to keep control of the army, reduce the challenge from militants, and persuade India to create political space for a settlement effort.
Volume 8, Issue 2
The Hindu–Muslim violence that has followed late February’s massacre by local Muslims of Hindu pilgrims passing through Godhra has so far remained largely confined to Gujarat state. Although at least 500 people had died as of early March, the violence has been smaller in scale than that which followed the destruction of the Ayodhya mosque by Hindu-nationalists in 1992. Then, nation-wide carnage left 3,000 dead. Still, the consequences of Godhra may be greater. The violence exposes deep problems within both the ruling coalition government in New Delhi and the Bharatiya Janata Party that leads it. The events have undermined claims that Hindu-nationalist forces no longer pose a challenge to India’s secular, pluralist and democratic order.
Volume 7, Issue 9
India and the war on terrorism - An ambivalent ally
However strong its desire to remove the insurgent problem in Kashmir, it cannot be in New Delhi's interest to do so by means which would grievously alienate the United States and further destabilise the situation in Pakistan. Yet, current interpretations of Indian policy rest largely on the assumption of Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's continued rule. In fact, speculation about his departure has become rife, and succession candidates may be tempted to strike a hardline posture on Kashmir to enhance their prospects.
Volume 7, Issue 5
Sri Lanka’s civil war - Edging towards talks
Under the auspices of a Norwegian peace initiative, the Sri Lankan government, led by President Chandrika Kumaratunga, and the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are edging hesitantly towards talks intended to bring the island's 18-year civil war to an end. Both are propelled by a mix of external and domestic pressures, but the political problems standing in the way of any peaceful solution remain formidable. If the two sides do finally meet over the negotiating table, the best that can be hoped for will be an agreement on a prolonged period of cease-fire, rather than any bold political departure. Nonetheless, this would at least buy time in which currently entrenched – and to date irreconcilable – positions might become less inflexible.
Volume 7, Issue 5
India-Pakistan talks - Substantive summit?
India's Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistan's military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, are to hold a summit meeting in New Delhi on 14 July 2001. The summit will mark the first high-level contact between the two countries since the incursion of Pakistan-backed guerrillas into Indian-held Kashmir at Kargil in May 1999, when bilateral tensions escalated severely before the insurgents withdrew. The talks are bound to fall under the shadow of the dispute over Kashmir. Nevertheless, the resumption of direct contact at the highest political level is vital to achieving greater regional stability, and there are several less sensitive areas – ranging from energy cooperation and the expansion of trade links – in which closer ties might be developed.
Volume 7, Issue 3
Bangladesh at the crossroads - A more stable future in sight?
The general election which Bangladesh must hold by October promises to have far-reaching consequences for the country's future. A decade of democracy has thus far brought little by way of political stability, economic growth or tranquillity in Dhaka's relations with its giant neighbour, India. However, the outcome of the impending polls could change this.
Volume 6, Issue 8
Nepal’s Maoist insurgency - A monarchy under threat
A spreading Maoist insurgency is posing a growing challenge to the authorities in Nepal. For the last four years, the Maoists have been spearheading a violent movement aimed at establishing a communist republic in place of the country’s constitutional monarchy. The campaign has left more than 1,500 people dead. As attacks escalate, there are growing demands for the Nepalese authorities to use the military. But such a move would strain relations between Nepal and foreign governments that provide the country with desperately needed economic aid.
Volume 6, Issue 6
India’s military spending - Prospects for modernisation
India has announced a large increase in its military spending that is intended to cover purchasing such weaponry as an aircraft carrier for the navy, Mirage-2000 and Su-30 strike aircraft for the air force and T-90 tanks for the army. Yet the US$13.5 billion budget remains relatively modest for a 1.2 million-strong military. Years of neglect, inadequate funding and inter-service rivalry still pose formidable obstacles to modernisation. In the coming decade, there will be little change in India’s power-projection capability.
Volume 6, Issue 3
Pakistan in crisis - Indecision begets instability
South Asia’s strategic balance has shifted significantly. India, an adversary of the US during the Cold War, is now close to cementing a strategic relationship with Washington. Pakistan has been put on notice by US President Bill Clinton that its military regime faces isolation unless it changes its foreign and domestic policies. American officials are haunted by the possibility that a nuclear-armed Pakistan may be turning into a failed state. But Pakistan’s military leader General Pervaiz Musharraf is unable or unwilling to assert his authority and prevent the Islamisation of the army and civil society. This poses a significant threat to stability in Pakistan and the region.
Volume 6, Issue 1
War in Sri Lanka - Elections and terror
The last weeks of 1999 saw a major offensive by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which wiped out most of the Sri Lankan government’s territorial gains of the past two years. Partly as a result, despite the failures of President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s government, she was re-elected on 22 December 1999 with 51% of the vote. Kumaratunga has promised to seek peace with the Tigers, and has offered wide-ranging autonomy to the Tamil-majority areas. The Tigers, however, continue to demand full independence, which is unacceptable to the majority of Sinhalese. The only hope for peace is finding a new consensus among the Sinhalese parties and some form of international mediation – and neither is forthcoming at present.
Volume 5, Issue 9
The military coup in Pakistan on 12 October 1999 stemmed not only from the corruption and incompetence of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, but also from the failure of Pakistan’s institutions. The population had become so disgusted with Sharif, and so disillusioned with democracy, that there was little protest against the military takeover. Nor at present is there any domestic pressure for fresh elections. However, the impression of stability may be illusory. Pakistan faces great problems of both economic crisis and ethno-religious violence. If the military fails as the politicians have done, Pakistan may slide into collapse.
Volume 5, Issue 6
The fighting between India and Pakistan in disputed Kashmir in May-July was the most serious clash between the two countries since the war of 1971. It was made even more dangerous by the fact that both countries are now nuclear powers. The confrontation began when hundreds of Pakistani troops, Kashmiri insurgents and Islamist militants crossed the Line of Control between Pakistani- and Indian-controlled Kashmir, and occupied ridges overlooking India's main supply route. In the end, strong international pressure, especially from the US, forced the Pakistanis to withdraw, but they succeeded in inflicting considerable damage on the Indian army and in putting Kashmir back on the international agenda. India, however, refuses to allow any outside mediation in the Kashmir dispute, and for the foreseeable future it will remain a potential source of conflict between the two countries.
Volume 4, Issue 8
Pakistan’s growing crisis - In the shadow of Afghanistan
The US missile strike against Osama bin Laden's terrorist base in Afghanistan on 20 August took place over Pakistani territory and humiliated the Pakistani government in the eyes of its population. Pakistani governments have played a critical role in creating and supporting the Islamic radical Taleban movement in Afghanistan, with the intention of strengthening Pakistan's influence in the region. The Taleban regime, however, is becoming both an international embarrassment and a source of encouragement for radicals in Pakistan who are seeking an Islamic revolution and threatening the country's large Shia minority.
Volume 4, Issue 5
India and Pakistan’s nuclear tests - A new arms race?
Western intelligence services are unable to agree on the exact nature of the nuclear tests carried out by India and Pakistan in May 1998. Nonetheless, it is clear that both countries now have the capability to deploy limited arsenals of nuclear weapons. Strategic Comments analyses the evidence concerning the tests and the weapons potential of the two sides.
Volume 4, Issue 4
The BJP: Chauvinists or pragmatists? - Hindu nationalism and India’s Muslims
In the past, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its radical ally, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), have been responsible for fomenting hatred and violence between India's Hindus and the country's sizeable Muslim minority. Now that the March 1998 parliamentary elections have given the BJP a dominant position in government, a key question for India is whether Muslims and other minorities should fear state oppression, or whether the BJP in power will pursue a more pragmatic and moderate line.
Volume 3, Issue 3
Sri Lanka’s civil war - What chance for peace?
A UK-brokered deal between Sri Lanka’s two main Sinhalese parties has increased the chances that a coherent package of political autonomy for the Tamils will be presented to parliament or directly to the people via a referendum in the coming months. But while the peace process has been reinvigorated following successes by the Sri Lankan military, such as the capture of the Jaffna peninsula, the main Tamil insurgent group, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has shown few signs of willingness to negotiate seriously. With the Army overstretched, however, and the economy creaking from the strains of the insurgency, President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s government has few options but to search for a political settlement.
Volume 3, Issue 1
India’s arms industry - A missed opportunity?
Even though India has made some incredible achievements in missile development, its arms industry is still unable to meet the demands of the Indian armed forces to any significant degree. While the resources available to the country’s arms industry and the various defence establishments are considerable in terms of manpower and scientific competence, India is still a long way from achieving self-sufficiency in any substantive area. Unlike several other developing countries, India has virtually no export markets for those weapons which have gone into production. Ironically, where there have been successes, these pose considerable challenges for regional security in South Asia.
