Towards Greater India-Pakistan Bilateral Stability

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury

Research Fellow for South Asia

International Institute for Strategic Studies

Contents

Towards the Peace Process

Improvement since May-June 2002
- Diplomatic
- Transportation & Communication
- People-to-people
- Peace process
- Bilateral dialogue
- ‘Road map’
April 2003 - Vajpayee’s ‘hand of friendship’
October 2003 – Communication and people-to-people
November 2003 - Ceasefire on borders
December 2003 – Musharraf’s flexibility on plebiscite issue
January 6, 2004 - Joint Press Statement
- INDIA
  - Unconditional talks – including J&K
  - J&K settlement – “satisfaction of both sides”
- PAKISTAN
  - Not permit any territory “to support terrorism in any manner”
February 2004 – ‘Talks on talks’
- ‘composite dialogue’ on eight disputes/issues

Challenges of Dialogue and CBMs

Composite Dialogue

1. Peace & Security	Diplomatic missions Foreign Secretary hotlines Pre-notification of missile tests	December 2004
2. Jammu & Kashmir	From “…to find a peaceful, negotiated, final settlement” (FS Joint Statement, New Delhi, June 28, 2004) To “…to find a peaceful, negotiated settlement” (PM-President Joint Statement, New York, September 24, 2004)	December 2004
3. Wullar Barrage/Tulbul navigation project	No progress	No mention in FMs Joint Statement of September 8 December 2004
4. Friendly Exchanges	People-to-people	Prospective implementation December 2004
5. Siachen Glacier	Discussion on disengagement and redeployment	Expert meeting outcome of August meeting to be implemented
6. Sir Creek	No progress	Joint survey of boundary pillars
7. Terrorism & Drug Trafficking	No agreed definition & To strengthen cooperation	December 2004 & Meetings
8. Economic and Commercial Cooperation	To promote bilateral trade	Committee of Experts

‘Additional Dialogue’

Narcotics officials	Intelligence sharing	2nd meeting - Finalisation of MoU in October/November
Nuclear CBMs – expert-level	Hotline between FS Upgrade DGMO hotline Pre-notification of missile tests	Expert level meetings on conventional & nuclear CBMs – Missile tests draft – December 2004
Baglihar power project	October 2003 – Visit January and June 2004
Railway authorities	March 9-10, 2004	Munnabao-Khokhrapar rail link
Indian BSF-Pakistan Rangers	Including narcotics control	2nd biannual meeting – October 2004
Indian CG – Pakistan MSA	Bianual meetings December 2-3, 2003	MOU for communications – November 2004
Transport Officials	January 13, 2004	Meeting on bus service between Srinagar and Muzzafarabad
Energy Ministers		Availability & access

CBMs

Major Concerns

INDIA
- Cross-border infiltration
- Dismantlement of terrorist infrastructure
- Islamabad’s counter-terrorism priorities

PAKISTAN
- Resolution of J&K dispute in the immediate/short term
- Delhi's ability to deliver

Major Differences

APPROACHES
- India: Progress on dialogue ‘linked’ to infiltration, but move forward on CBMs
- Pakistan: Simultaneous progress on J&K and dialogue, ‘linked’ to CBMs

Future Options – I

CONSOLIDATE CEASEFIRE BILATERALLY
- Joint Statement/Declaration
- Scheduled flag meetings
- Mechanism for ascertaining allegations of violations
- Mechanism for coordinated monitoring of ceasefire

Future Options – II

INSTITUTIONALISE DIALOGUE
- Sustain peace process
- Realistic deliverables
- Manage expectations

Future Options – III

Future Options – IV

NUCLEAR CBM ‘DELIVERABLES’
- Nuclear capabilities: “factor for stability”
- Pre-notification of missile tests
- Exchange of missile test sites
- Continued exchange of nuclear lists

Future Options – V

ECONOMIC COOPERATION
- Trade and Economic Issues
- Potential Natural Gas Pipeline

Conclusions

AIMS
- SUSTAIN DIALOGUE & CONSOLIDATE PEACE PROCESS
- PROVIDE ‘DELIVERABLES’ ON JAMMU & KASHMIR
- RESOLUTION OF KASHMIR DISPUTE IN THE MEDIUM TERM