On 27-28 January2006 the IISS Russia and Eurasia Programme organised a round table meeting entitled ‘Ten Years of the Shanghai Co-operation Process and Regional Security Challenges in Central Asia’. The meeting took place in Arundel House as part of the on-going research project on relations between the Shanghai Co-operation organisation and other influential players in Central Asia, which is supported by a grant from Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
The meeting was attended by a diverse group of experts from national strategic institutes, universities and think-tanks from across Central Asia, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Mongolia, France, the UK and the US. Speakers came from the following institutes: International Centre for Strategic and Political Studies, Moscow; Centre for SCO Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai; Institute for Strategic Studies (Mongolia), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Diplomatic Academy under MFA of Kyrgyzstan; Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (India); Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbe¬kistan; Centre for Economic Research, Uzbekistan; Islamabad Policy Research Institute; George Mason University (USA); Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan; Centre for Studies of Terrorism, (Almaty) Kazakhstan; ‘Society and Law’, Tajikistan; Hokkaido University, Japan; Tajikistan secular-religious dialogue; French Institute of International Relations (IFRI); Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Moscow; International Strategic Research Institute under the President of Kyrgyz Republic; as well as SOAS, LSE and the University of Cambridge.
The meeting was divided into six sessions each focusing on different aspects of the Shanghai Cooperation Process, its achievements, limitations and future prospects. The meeting was opened by the Director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme Ms. Oksana Antonenko. Ms. Antonenko outlined three main objectives of the meeting. Firstly, to assess the development of the Shanghai Co-operation Process and its successor, the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO), which was established in 2001 and will celebrate its fifth anniversary this year in June. Secondly, to explore key political, security and economic challenges in Central Asia and to identify what role the SCO can play to address them and where the SCO role can only be a limited one. The key question raised by the participants related to the future prospects of the SCO, whether it could evolve into a political-military organisation or develop into a regional economic and development structure. The third objective was to assess relations between the SCO and other players in Central Asia. Following the admission of India, Pakistan and Iran as observers of the SCO, the question arises whether these states could one day become candidates for full membership. Such enlargement could have a huge impact on the SCO’s development as well as its regional and international role. Another question is to what extent the SCO could take on the problems of Afghanistan and even perhaps incorporate Afghanistan into the SCO in some capacity. And last, but not least, the key question is what relations could the SCO develop with other key players in the region such as the USA, Europe, Japan, as well as the EU, NATO and ASEAN. Whether the SCO, which at its last summit demanded a time limit be set for the presence of US troops in Central Asia, will remain a key geo-political rival for US and European engagement in the region, or whether there is room for pursuing closer co-operation between the SCO and NATO or the EU. Participants discussed all these questions during the one and a half days of the conference.
The first session, chaired by Ms. Antonenko, assessed the achievements and limitations of the Shanghai Cooperation Process and was addressed by Prof. Gennady Chufrin (Russia), Dr. Sanat Kushkumbaev (Kazakhstan), Dr. Huasheng Zhao (China) and Dr. Mirzohid Rahimov (Uzbekistan). The speakers expressed their observations on: the SCO as a factor in the new regional order in Central Asia the Astana summit and the SCO’s geo-political role in Central Asia; and China’s relations towards Central Asia and the dynamics and prospects for the development of the SCO from Uzbekistan’s perspective.
The second session was chaired by Col. (ret.) Christopher Langton, the editor of The Military Balance. This session concentrated on the analysis of current security challenges in Central Asia. The speakers in this session included Dr Valentin Bogatyrev (Kyrgyzstan), Mr. Faredun Hodizoda (Tajikistan), Dr Erlan Karin (Kazakhstan) and Dr Akihiro Iwashita (Japan). Speakers discussed the impact of current developments in Afghanistan on regional security in Central Asia; identified the main terrorism threats and assessed cooperation on counter-terrorism under CSTO and SCO auspices (including the activities of regional anti-terrorist centres of these organisations) and focused on the history and methodology of the successful settlement of border disputes between Central Asian states and China under the Shaghai Co-operation Process of the mid-1990s.
The third session, chaired by Dr. Shirin Akiner from SOAS University in London, was entitled ‘SCO and Political Development in Central Asia’. This session focused on the assessment of recent political developments in Central Asia and new perceptions of key sources of instability in the region. Among the speakers of this session were Prof. Irina Zvyagelskaya (Russia), Dr. Muatar Khaidarova (Tajikistan) and Dr. Anna Matveeva (UK).
The first day ended with the fourth session, which was dedicated to the development of the SCO’s economic agenda and addressed by Dr Vladimir Paramonov (Uzbekistan), Dr. Zhuangzhi Sun (China) and Mr. Murat Suiunbaev (Kyrgyzstan).
The second day of the conference was chaired by Oksana Antonenko and centred on the SCO’s relations with other influential players in Central Asia. The first session was dedicated to the perceptions of the SCO and the strategic importance of Central Asia by recently admitted observers. The three speakers Dr. Meena Singh-Roy (India), Dr. Maqsudul Hasan Nuri (Pakistan) and Prof. Adiya Tushvintugs (Mongolia) described the respective interests of these states towards Central Asia and their expectations towards the future evolution of the SCO. It was clear that although the issue of the SCO’s enlargement does not appear on the present agenda of the organisation, observer nations will decide whether or not to pursue closer association based on whether the SCO develops a greater economic dimension or focuses on geo-political and military aspects. Some reservations about future enlargement were also raised by experts from SCO states who wanted to see the SCO deepening its co-operation among existing members rather than enlarging. Finally, it was pointed out that there is still no clear definition as to the rights and responsibilities of observers and therefore their role within the SCO remains unclear.
The final session focused on perceptions of the SCO among European States, NATO and the US. These topics were presented by Dr. Thomas Gomart (France) Dr. Roy Allison (UK), and Dr. Eric McGlinchey (US). All speakers noted that initially the SCO was not perceived as a serious player in Central Asia, but recently both Europe and the US had expressed greater interest towards the SCO. However, they view the SCO primarily as an instrument for China and Russia to challenge the engagement of Western players in the region. This perception was reinforced by the Astana declaration on US and NATO military bases in the region. Therefore it is unlikely that any western organisation will seek any closer co-operation with the SCO. However, speakers suggested that an informal dialogue, such as the one organised by the IISS, could be very beneficial to help diffuse regional rivalries which are having a very negative impact on regional stability and security in Central Asia.
The IISS Russia and Eurasia programme and participants assessed this round table meeting as very successful in producing an interesting exchange of views in a representative group of experts dealing with security issues in Central Asia. The IISS will prepare and publish a paper incorporating the key themes from the conference. Follow-up meetings, with the participation of both experts and policy-makers, are planned in China and in Central Asia later this year.
We would like to express our gratitude to the Sasakawa Peace Foundation for supporting this important meeting.
