On 24 January 2007 Dr Richard Garwin led a discussion on ‘Nonproliferation and the future of the UK Nuclear Deterrent’. Dr Garwin argued that the service life of the UK’s Vanguard-class submarines is between ten to fifteen years longer than the 30-year estimate currently used in official assessments. An acknowledgement of the diminished urgency to replace the Trident system would allow the UK to assess more accurately its requirement for a future nuclear deterrent, and thus enable British defence resources to be allocated more appropriately. Dr Garwin also challenged many common assumptions concerning the UK’s submarine industrial infrastructure and skill base.
