On 26-27 June 2003, the IISS together with the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies (MCIS), University of Southampton, hosted a workshop entitled “Thinking About the Unthinkable: The Impact of the Use of WMD upon their International Non-Proliferation Regimes – A US-European Dialogue”. The workshop, which was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, took place at the IISS headquarters in London. It brought together some 30 experts and officials from the UK, Europe and the US to discuss what effects the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) would have on international arms control efforts.
The meeting opened with welcoming remarks by Professor John Simpson, Director of MCIS. Professor Simpson also acted as chairman of the first panel which dealt with “The Impact of Terrorist Use of Chemical, Biological, Nuclear or Radiological Weapons upon the Regimes”. Presentations were provided by Mr. Leonard S. Spector, Deputy Director of the Centre for Non-Proliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, and Dr. Ralf Trapp of the Technical Secretariat of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). Among the many issues addressed by conference participants were risk assessments and domestic and international efforts and initiatives to prevent and to respond to attacks.
The second session discussed “The Impact of the Use of Incapacitating Agents upon the Regimes” with Dr. Tanya Ogilvie-White, MCIS, acting as chair. Presentations were given by Dr. Brian Rappert, Post-Doctoral Fellow at University of Nottingham, and Professor Malcolm Dando of the Department of Peace Studies at University of Bradford. The workshop discussed and weighed potential benefits and dangers of allowing the use of incapacitating agents. Issues brought to the fore included potential misuse and negative scientific developments, effectiveness of such agents, and definitions of law enforcement.
The final session of the day was facilitated by Mr. Ian Kenyon, Visiting Research Fellow at MCIS, and was entitled “The Impact of the Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons upon the Regimes”. Ms. Elisa D. Harris, Senior Research Scholar at the Centre for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland, and Dr. Graham S. Pearson, Visiting Professor at the Department of Peace Studies, University of Bradford, provided presentations on the topic. Among the issues considered were enforcement mechanisms, investigations of possible use, and what effects use historically has had on efforts to prevent use and proliferation of chemical and biological arms.
Friday started with a panel on “The Impact of the Use of Nuclear Weapons by States Other Than the N5 upon the Regimes”, which was chaired by Dr. Bruno Tertrais, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. Mr. Christopher Clary, Research Assistant at the Henry L. Stimson Center, and Mr. Tariq Rauf, Head of Verification and Security Policy Coordination, Office of External Relations and Policy Coordination, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), provided presentations. The workshop deliberated on various questions such as the threshold for use of nuclear weapons, preventive versus pre-emptive use, deterrence, the role of doctrines and rhetoric in international relations, rationality and expectations, as well as positive and negative security assurances.
The final session was on “The Impact of the Use of Nuclear Weapons by one of the N5 upon the Regimes”. The panel was chaired by Professor Simpson, with presentations provided by Mr. Ian Smart, formerly with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Mr. Paul Schulte, Fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University, and Mr. Camille Grand, Counsellor for Technical Affairs of the French Ministry of Defence. Among issues dealt with by participants were decision-based use of nuclear weapons versus accidents and the question of proportionality.
