On 20 November 2002, the IISS together with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) hosted a seminar entitled ‘Deterrence at Low Levels of Nuclear Weapons: A Reappraisal’. The workshop, which was sponsored by the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), took place in London at the IISS and brought together officials and experts to discuss issues of nuclear deterrence, with particular focus on the experiences and nuclear doctrines of France and the UK.
The conference opened with welcome remarks by Dr Gary Samore, IISS Senior Fellow for Non-Proliferation, followed by introductory remarks by David Hamon of DTRA’s Advanced Systems and Concepts Office. The morning session focused on the origins and evolution of nuclear strategies in the UK and France, starting out with presentations provided by Gregory Giles, Assistant Vice President at SAIC, and Michèle Ledgerwood, Programme Manager and National Security Analyst at SAIC. Malcolm Chalmers, IISS Senior Consulting Fellow, and Dr Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, acted as commentators. Conference participants discussed the assumptions, threat perceptions, and the political and technical considerations which have shaped UK and French nuclear strategy, doctrine and force posture.
The afternoon session moved on to address various issues related to deterrence at low levels of nuclear weapons. Issues dealt with included the significance of the size of an arsenal, how to determine adversaries’ thresholds of “unacceptable damage”, the communication of deterrence publicly and privately, and potentially destabilising factors. Lewis A. Dunn, Senior Vice President at SAIC, acted as facilitator. The final session considered the applicability of deterrence at low levels of nuclear weapons to the US and Russia. The session also reflected on potential approaches rogue states with small numbers of nuclear devices may develop to deter or coerce larger nuclear powers. Professor Beatrice Heuser of King’s College’s Department of War Studies gave a presentation. Additional issues discussed included the influence of public opinion and culture, counterforce and countervalue strategies, security assurances, communicating deterrence, transparency, the role played by factors such as leadership, technology, economy and the size of conventional forces, and where nuclear deterrence fits in relation to fighting terrorism.
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