Gulf and Middle Eastern Security - Publications
- Strait of Hormuz: Iran's disruptive military options
Could Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, or significantly hinder traffic passing through it? A recent decision by the European Union to impose a total embargo on the purchase of Iranian oil has prompted threats from Tehran to close the world's most important oil chokepoint. However, an assessment of military capabilities deployed in the area, and of likely tactics, suggests that Iran would find it difficult or unpalatable to cause major disruption.
- Containing Iran's Missile Threat
The breathing space offered by a regional flight-test ban could facilitate cooperation on missile defences and the building of greater trust and confidence between Moscow and Washington.
- Leaving Iraq
The end of the war brings no sense of triumphalism. In addition to its human costs, the war has been a blow to US prestige, revealing the limits rather than the extent of US power.
- Egypt's fragile transition to democracy
Egypt's convoluted transition from authoritarian rule to a more democratic system continues to suffer from serious tremors. In recent weeks, activists failed in an attempt to revive the revolution and challenge military rule, though the military did offer concessions and installed a new interim government. While the country's most free parliamentary elections in decades are under way - with Islamist parties so far winning easily - the future course of Egypt's revolution remains highly uncertain.
- IAEA report: death knell of Iran diplomacy?
An evolving crisis over Iran's nuclear programme escalated this month as an IAEA report detailed evidence of Iranian R&D work on nuclear weapons, mostly dating to pre-2004, and the US and allies invoked the harshest sanctions yet. Yet amidst resumed talk of unilateral Israeli air strikes, Iran showed no sign of backing down.
- Succession and the Supreme Leader in Iran
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 71 years old and rumours of his poor health have sparked intense speculation in the past. He must certainly pass from the scene at some point. When that day comes, the constitutional provisions for selecting his successor will kick in, but the politics, institutional needs and factional infighting of the moment will determine who or what succeeds him.
