IISS Defence Analysis Programme
Europe’s Military and Security Capabilities
Project Plan
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is undertaking an important new project to assess Europe’s defence and security capabilities.
Fifteen years after the Cold war, debate about European military and security capabilities is intense. Many countries have made considerable efforts to adapt their armed forces to modern threats and requirements. But it is not yet clear that Europe collectively obtains full value from the sum of national defence budgets. If nations are to confront security challenges and play the roles that their leaders envisage, they need the right capabilities.
The purpose of this IISS project is to advance international understanding on capabilities issues and it will build on data gathered for The Military Balance, the IISS annual publication detailing armed forces, equipment portfolios and defence spending for 170 countries.
The project so far has financial backing from the UK Ministry of Defence, European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (EADS) and Northrop Grumman Corporation. The project will include meetings intended to advance discussion on the issues and to guide those undertaking the work. The project’s output will be a series of reports, published articles, briefings, and a final overall report.
Scope of the project
European nations are responding, both individually and through institutions such as NATO and the European Union, to changing perceptions of threats and previously identified gaps in capabilities. New efforts to boost European defence capabilities are now under way with the inauguration of NATO’s Allied Command Transformation and the NATO Response Force, as well as the establishment of an EU Defence Agency and the EU’s formulation of new 2010 Headline Goals. Individual countries also have structural reforms under way in a drive to use resources more effectively. However, there still remain widely acknowledged weaknesses in efforts at modernisation and there remains considerable debate about the precise capabilities needed, how to fund, structure and equip them, and how best to achieve interoperability between them.
Traditional methods of assessing capability – such as size of armed forces, defence budgets and equipment inventories – are no longer sufficient to determine the effects that a country can achieve in confronting threats and taking part in military interventions. Additional factors must be taken into account and a principal task of this project will be to establish precisely what these factors are.
A nation’s ability to confront modern threats to its security cannot be judged only by its military strength. Problems such as regional conflicts, failure of states and organised crime can have impacts far afield because they may foment international terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. A recent report by a "Group of Personalities" published by the European Commission noted: "Since current threats ignore national borders and can damage European interests at home and abroad, the distinction between external and internal security becomes increasingly blurred…Military instruments can and do play a role, but in most cases intelligence, police, judicial, economic, financial, scientific and diplomatic means will be at least as important." Therefore, internal security must also be considered.
The demand for "transformational", networked approaches raises issues over the technological and industrial base that is required to support modern capabilities. The largest suppliers have sought to adapt to customers’ needs by moving across borders and shifting the focus from platforms to systems. But they face technological and economic challenges as well as regulatory barriers in adapting to new needs.
Section 1: Defining and assessing Europe’s capabilities
The aim of the first section of the project is to advance international thinking on how capabilities should be measured. The main aim of the meeting held on January 10, 2005 was to table ideas and foment discussion on this issue.
Some of the themes for discussion were:
· What are the best measures of capabilities?
· What are the factors driving national decisions on capabilities?
· How should nations determine the balance between combat and peace support capabilities?
· To what extent should discussion of military and broader security capabilities be combined?
Following on from the dialogue and ideas put forward at this meeting, the study will seek to take forward the points listed above. It will also consider where each nation stands in several respects, such as:
· How does each country perceive the threat? What is its defence posture?
· What roles does each country expect its armed forces to play? What changes in configuration, doctrine and training are being undertaken so that these can be fulfilled?
· What progress has been made in defence reforms?
· What operational experience has each country acquired?
· How deployable and usable are forces? What commitments have been made to NATO/EU/UN/other bodies (and recent deployments), and to collaborative equipment programmes?
· How is the balance changing between different categories of defence spending (e.g. personnel, O&M, procurement, research, internal security)?
Section 2: Assessing Europe’s capability requirements
This section will seek to determine the capabilities that European nations need to meet threats and perform their desired roles. It will draw upon the substantial work already done in this area by a number of organisations and individuals, including work published by the IISS. (For example, Adelphi Paper 353 European Crisis Management and Defence: The Search for Capabilities by Hans-Christian Hagman, and various articles in Survival). Recent experience in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere will be taken into account. The study will be informed by the country-by-country approach of Section 1.
Section 3: The technological and industrial base for modern capabilities
This section will assess the demand and consider the resources available to meet capability needs in terms of the technology and the industrial base, both in Europe and elsewhere. Following the restructuring of the global defence business, does Europe’s industrial base meet modern requirements? Where should research budgets be directed? A recent report of a "Group of Personalities" assembled by the European Commission said that in trying to meet its security goals, Europe did not fully exploit its scientific, technological and industrial strength because of structural deficiencies at the institutional and political level. It suggested that many capabilities and technologies were multi-functional across domestic tasks and external missions, and that a European Security Research Programme should take advantage of this.
Section 4: linking the US and Europe
This section will link the conclusions of the first three sections with capabilities, views, and industrial/technological resources in the US. Its precise terms of reference will be determined later.
