Over the past decade, the scientific evidence on climate change and the role of human activities has become overwhelming and impossible to ignore. In fact, it now appears that some warming has already occurred, and will continue to occur, no matter what actions we take. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that even if global action could begin reducing total global greenhouse gas emissions before 2015 – an increasingly unlikely scenario – we should still expect a global average warming of 2⁰C above the pre-industrial era temperature. Alone, a 2⁰C increase will cause strong dislocations and shifts in regional weather patterns. Increases beyond 2⁰C could have profound and disturbing consequences on the planet. Unfortunately, the extent of warming beyond this point is difficult to know, and dependent upon human efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
Around the world, military and strategic planners must operate in a world of uncertainty. They understand that a failure to act and a failure to plan for an uncertain future are intolerable. The IISS’s Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security providesd a forum for policy makers – particularly in the defence, security, and intelligence communities – to explore the ways in which a warming global climate will affect global and regional security. Particular areas of focus are: the effects of a warming climate on weak and distressed states, the shifting balance of power in the Arctic, the implications of reduced food and water supplies, and how global security organizations should adapt their institutions to best respond to the challenges of a warming climate.
Climate change is a global problem, requiring coordinated and effective global solutions. However, over the past decade there has been little consensus between North American, European, and Asian policymakers on appropriate mitigation policies. Part of the reason for this prolonged and loud disagreement has been that the strongest and sharpest voices have come from the environmental community. The IISS believes that climate change is a global security threat, and should be treated as such by international negotiators and policymakers. On the presumption that nations are more likely to act out of self-interest than environmental altruism, the IISS’s Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security sought to highlight the national security threats of climate change. Our goal was that this new focus will promote concerted international action.
