28 May 2010 - IISS Conference- The Global Security Implications of Climate Change - Brussels

On Friday, May 28, the International Institute for Strategic Studies convened a conference on “The Global Security Implications of Climate Change” in Brussels Belgium.

The conference was held at the European Commission’s headquarters, in the Schuman Room of the Berlaymont Building.  Approximately 80 people, including representatives from government, academia, and the private sector participated.  Participants came from at least five continents. 

The conference sought to more closely examine the areas in which the IISS believes that climate change will most impact security: water, food, and energy.  Discussions and presentations centered on how changes in these areas could change international relations and undermine stability.  The goal was to raise awareness of the threats and produce recommendations and for government and security planners.

Opening Address and First Session - Climate Change, Security and Transatlantic Relations

Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, opened the conference by summarizing the IISS’ work on the intersections of climate and security policy.  

Laurence Graff, the Acting Head of Unit for Inter-Institutional Relations gave the opening address.  Graff’s position within the new Directorate for Climate Action of the European Commission gave her insight into both how the reorganization of the EU after the Lisbon treaty European Actions and the international negotiations. 

Andrew Holland, the IISS’ Programme Manager and Research Associate for the Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security gave a presentation that focused on the results of March’s IISS workshop on climate change and energy security.  

Cho Kong, the Chief Political Analyst for Shell International, gave a presentation based upon Shell’s energy forecast models over the next thirty years.  He detailed the major challenges society faces in changing away from current energy portfolios. 

Second Session- Adapting Water Security to a Changing Climate – Preventing civil and regional conflict over scarce water resources and Luncheon Address - Climate Change and Food Security 

Rachel Posner, a Fellow at the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Anton Earl, the Project Director for Transboundary Water Resources at the Stockholm International Water Institute, presented in the second session, on “Adapting Water Security to a Changing Climate”.  Posner contended that water is a key part of development, and a lack of quality infrastructure throughout Africa is holding back development. 

Anton Earle’s presentation maintained that water is a resource that is poorly managed, and countries should use pricing mechanisms to more closely match supply and demand. 

Sir Gordon Conway, a Professor of International Development at Imperial College, London, gave a presentation on the threats presented by global food insecurity, and how climate change threatens to unbalance the already complicated and chronic problem of hunger.

Third Session - Climate Change and Conflict – A net assessment of the risks to international security presented by climate change

The last panel presented a ‘net assessment’ of the risks to international security presented by climate change.  Lieutenant Colonel Ian Astley, of the Global Strategic Trends Programme within the UK Ministry of Defense’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, gave a presentation arguing that climate change is a ‘ring road issue’, in that it will affect all other areas of security.

Though it will not cause conflict, it will adjust the tipping points of other societal factors, making conflict more likely.  Cleo Paskal, an Associate Fellow in the Energy, Environment and Development Programme at Chatham House, focused her presentation predominantly on how climate change will affect maritime security, particularly as it relates to China.  Jeffrey Mazo, the IISS Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy, gave a presentation that focused on how vulnerability to climate change correlates with areas of the world with already weak or failing states. 

Final Address - Security Planning for a Changing Climate

The final address was given by Jamie Shea, the Director of Policy Planning for NATO.  Shea maintained that, though it is difficult to advance a long-term threat like climate change up the agenda of an organization that is currently engaged in war, planning for climate security is not that different from the work that NATO already does, including humanitarian response, mediating border disputes, and organizing refugees.  Shea emphasized that NATO will continue its strong emphasis on partnering with humanitarian organizations, and building military and governing capacity in areas that are vulnerable to climate change.