As Iran nears the point – probably sometime in 2009 – of producing enough low enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon if it is further enriched, the question of how Iran can be stopped from having the Bomb will become increasingly urgent.
The paper explains how Iran developed its nuclear programme to the point where it threatens to achieve a weapons capability within a short time frame, and analyses Western policy responses aimed at forestalling that capability. Key questions are addressed: will the world have to accept an Iranian uranium-enrichment programme and does having a weapons capability mean having the Bomb?
For nearly two decades, Western strategy on the Iran nuclear issue emphasised denial of supply. Since 2002, there has also been a demand-side dimension to the strategy, aimed at changing Iran’s cost–benefit calculations through inducements and pressure. But the failure of these policies to prevent Iran from coming close to achieving a nuclear-weapons capability has promoted suggestions for fallback strategies that would grant legitimacy to uranium enrichment in Iran in exchange for intrusive inspections and constraints on the programme.
The paper assesses these ‘second-best’ options in terms of their feasibility and their impact on the proliferation risks of diversion of nuclear material and knowledge, clandestine development and NPT break-out, and the risk of stimulating a proliferation cascade in the Middle East and beyond. It concludes that the risks are still best minimised by reinforcing the binary choice presented to Iran of cooperation or isolation, and strengthening denial of supply.
The Adelphi Papers monograph series is the Institute’s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. Eight papers are published each year, designed to provide rigorous analysis of strategic and defence topics that will prove useful to academics, researchers, politicians and diplomats, as well as foreign-affairs analysts, defence commentators and journalists.
The press launch will be chaired by Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of Survival. It will take place in the fifth floor conference room at Arundel House (address below). All guests are requested to take their seats by 10:25. If you are bringing a camera crew, please arrive in advance to set up. Technical experts will be on hand to assist.
Please note that copies of The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Avoiding worst-case outcomes will be available for press at the launch. Other visitors will have the possibility of buying extra copies at a discounted rate of £10.
If you would like to attend, please RSVP to MS Leah Charpentier email: iisscurrentevents@iiss.org or tel: 020 7395 9112
For more information: http://www.iiss.org/publications/adelphi-papers/adelphi-papers-2008/the-iranian-nuclear-crisis/
