On Wednesday 12 December 2007, Mark Fitzpatrick (IISS Senior Fellow for Non-proliferation) lead a discussion meeting on the topic of "Iran and the US Intelligence Community: Assessing the Assessment" from 1.30-2.30 pm.
The US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released on 3 December 2007 judges “with high confidence that in fall 2003 Tehran halted its weapons programme”, and assesses “with moderate confidence [that] Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons programme as of mid-2007”. This is a significant departure from the previous NIE on Iran released in 2005, which argued that Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure.”
Although the NIE does not exonerate Iran, assessing with “moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons”, the publication of this report defusess what has been an unstinting escalation of tension over the nuclear programme. In this discussion meeting Mr Fitzpatrick will explore the implications of the NIE, including its significance for future US-Iran relations and the role of the US intelligence community in America’s nuclear diplomacy.
Mark Fitzpatrick is the Senior Fellow for Non-proliferation and the director of the IISS non-proliferation programme. Before coming to the IISS in October 2006, he spent 26 years with the US Department of State, where in his last posting he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Non-proliferation. He has written extensively on the Iranian nuclear programme in Survival and other publications.
This meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Affairs, and took place on the Fifth Floor at Arundel House, 13-15 Arundel Street, Temple Place, London WC2R 3DX.
Spaces were allocated on a first-come, first-served basis.
RSVP to Ben Rhode on rhode@iiss.org or tel. 020 7395 9175
