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The Hamas factor |
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Israel's eventual unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and the erection of its ‘security barrier’ in the West Bank could constitute a revolutionary change of the status quo in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Strategically, Israel’s moves are an implicit acknowledgment that any aspiration to a ‘Greater Israel’ is demographically untenable. On a more tactical level, they are warnings to the Palestinians that restraining terrorism remains the sine qua non of reviving the peace process premised on the ‘roadmap’ and prospects for the creation of a Palestinian state. Hamas, the strongest of the religiously-motivated Palestinian terrorist groups, is the most formidable impediment to these objectives. The question remains whether the Israeli withdrawal will make Hamas easier or harder to control and neutralise.
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India’s new government |
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Following the surprise general election defeat of the National Democratic Alliance at the hands of a Congress-led coalition, the new Indian government, headed by Manmohan Singh as prime minister, decided to postpone the first set of talks on nuclear confidence building measures with Islamabad, which had been scheduled for 25–26 May. This was largely – and understandably – a result of the extended and confused political transition. That said, the arrival of the new government is expected to result in changes – in style, and, to some extent in substance – to Indian foreign and security policy.
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The Libyan disarmament model |
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The Libyan disarmament agreement was a brilliant success for traditional non-proliferation diplomacy, mixing pressures and inducements to change behaviour rather than regimes. Unfortunately, the circumstances that produced the agreement are unlikely to be repeated in the case of Iran and North Korea. A negotiated settlement in these cases is more likely to represent difficult compromises and reciprocity, which, thus far, the Bush administration has not been prepared to undertake. With valuable time and opportunities lost, the next administration is likely to find it faces an even harder task to negotiate disarmament agreements with Tehran and Pyongyang.
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Thailand’s southern discomfort |
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Thailand's south has been wracked by violence since January 2004, but the killing of over 100 mainly youthful Muslim militants by government forces on 28 April signified a sharp deterioration in the security situation in the majority-Muslim provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala. The harshness of the clampdown is likely to further alienate southern Muslims, who number 2.5 million or roughly 4% of Thailand's population. This could provide fertile ground for local separatist groups, as well as the Southeast Asia-wide terrorist network, Jemaah Islamiah.
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Towards stability in Afghanistan? |
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The forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Afghanistan, together with UN-led initiatives to demobilise warlord militias, will not in themselves effect a transition to a fully democratic, secure and law-bound state. But there is at least a growing recognition that Afghanistan’s internal dynamics are changing – away from violence and towards electoral politics. If and when the gun is finally removed from the political equation, the major long-term challenge will remain the enduring weakness of Afghan state institutions.
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