• Armed Conflict Survey

    Chapter 1, Part I: Pessimism and Planning in Armed Conflict

    05 May 2016. 

    Predictions about developments in inter-state and intra-state armed conflicts are naturally influenced by recent experiences. This explains the optimism that followed the end of the Cold War and the singular experience of the 1991 Gulf War, and the pessimism now following the long insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, the souring of relations with Russia, the anxieties surrounding China, and the sudden prominence of the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) as a source of mayhem in the Middle East and terrorism in Western countries.

  • Armed Conflict Survey

    Chapter 1, Part II: The Political Economy of Violent Conflict

    05 May 2016. 

    With violent conflict rapidly changing the strategic landscape in many parts of the world, new perspectives are required to inform analysis and policy responses. This essay focuses on how a political-economy perspective could provide policy¬≠makers with a means to better understand the organisational aspects of armed groups and the behaviour and motives of their members, often vaguely labelled ‘terrorists’, ‘warlords’ or ‘criminals’. The practical value of this perspective rests on delineating the functions of violence, the characteristics of armed groups and the financing of conflict – all of which help to develop a better understanding of conflict dynamics in fluid and turbulent circumstances. These perspectives can build on over two decades of work on the political economy of violent conflict.

  • IISS Voices

    Jens Wardenaer: Elections and peace in the Philippines

    05 May 2016.  The new administration in the Philippines will need to bring the peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) to a satisfactory conclusion, and the candidates have a variety of approaches to the issue

  • Events

    The Armed Conflict Survey 2016: Media Launch

    05 May 2016. 

    Media Launch
    Arundel House, London
    Thursday 5 May 2016
    9-9.30am BST Informal breakfast reception
    9.30-10.30am BST IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman's remarks and Q&A with the panel

  • Events

    The Armed Conflict Survey 2016: Members' Launch

    05 May 2016. 

    Members' Launch
    Arundel House, London
    Thursday 5 May 2016
    12-12.30pm BST Informal tea/coffee reception
    12.30-1.30pm BST Panel presentation and Q&A

  • Expert Commentary

    Deutsche Welle: Armed Conflict Survey - In 2015, Syria accounted for one-third of global conflict deaths

    05 May 2016.  Interview with Dr Anastasia Voronkova, Editor, Armed Conflict Survey; Research Fellow for Armed Conflict and Armed Conflict Database This year's edition of the Armed Conflict Survey has been released. DW's Matthias von Hein spoke with its editor about the rise of foreign fighters and how climate change could stoke conflicts around the globe. Deutsche Welle: This is the second edition of the armed conflict survey. What is the most important development highlighted by...

  • ACD Insight

    Elections and peace in the Philippines

    05 May 2016.  The new administration in the Philippines will need to bring the peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) to a satisfactory conclusion, and the candidates have a variety of approaches to the issue

  • IISS Voices

    Anastasia Voronkova: New ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh: no cause for optimism

    18 April 2016.  A long-term solution to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh seems unlikely, given the complex domestic and international political situation

  • ACD Insight

    New ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh: no cause for optimism

    18 April 2016.  A long-term solution to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh seems unlikely, given the complex domestic and international political situation

  • Strategic Comments

    The tenuous diplomacy of the Syrian conflict

    12 April 2016. 

    International diplomacy with respect to the Syrian conflict has been episodic and generally ineffective. Greater engagement by the Syrian regime and the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 in support of negotiations on Syria's political transition have improved prospects for a political solution. But the parties remain far apart on the role of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a political transition, and therefore still face a steep uphill climb.

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