• IISS Voices

    Spies, lies and the US president-elect

    16 January 2017.  A blizzard of angry Tweets has laid bare the rift between Donald Trump and the United States intelligence community. But the saga does not suggest a Russian mastery of information warfare, argues Nigel Inkster. When the going gets tough, Trump will still look to his intelligence community for answers – even if his instincts are to disparage it.

  • Expert Commentary

    Staying friends with all powers works best for small nations

    13 January 2017.  Singapore's relationship with China is in the spotlight after a series of spats. William Choong, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, argues smaller states should ensure a balance of power between stronger nations.

  • Strategic Comments

    Social divisions and rising terrorist violence in Turkey

    12 January 2017. 

    In the past 18 months, Turkey has not appreciably reduced Kurdish militant groups' terrorist capabilities or addressed the root causes of their grievances. The country has grown less tolerant of Islamic State activity, and friction between Turkey and its NATO allies has impeded intelligence-sharing about terrorist threats. Accordingly, the level of terrorist violence in Turkey appears set to rise in the months ahead, potentially leading to sustained domestic instability and severe damage to the country’s social fabric.

  • Adelphi Books

    Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia

    12 January 2017. 

    With talk in world capitals of a new cold war, this Adelphi examines the roots of the Ukraine crisis, analysing Western and Russian policies in post-Soviet Eurasia since 1991, and providing an assessment of both Russia and the West’s actions post-2014.

  • IISS Voices

    Global development and the fear of Trump

    12 January 2017.  Comments made by Donald Trump during his election campaign suggest that US support for global development will be at risk during his presidency. But the political establishment’s faith in development offers some hope for the years ahead, Antônio Sampaio says.

  • Politics and Strategy

    Pre-empting a North Korean ICBM test

    09 January 2017.  Donald Trump recently tweeted that North Korea will not finish development of a nuclear missile capable of reaching the United States, but how he would enforce such a red line is unclear. Options for military pre-emption of North Korean missile launches should not be discussed in a cavalier manner, nor without regional consultation.

  • Expert Commentary

    North Korea: Obama's Prime Nonproliferation Failure

    03 January 2017.  Barack Obama has struggled to contain North Korea's growing nuclear threat. Mark Fitzpatrick, executive director of IISS-Americas, looks back on eight difficult years.

  • Politics and Strategy

    Regime change for Iran?

    21 December 2016.  Iran's behaviour on a number of fronts is unpalatable to the United States. But a policy of regime change is not the answer.

  • Military Balance Blog

    Liberal democracies and hybrid war

    16 December 2016.  Although hybrid warfare is usually viewed by liberal democracies as something to defend against, some are beginning to suggest it should be employed offensively. Kaan Sahin argues that to do so in a comprehensive way would be an act of self-sabotage.

  • Adelphi Books

    Chapter One: Cold Peace

    14 December 2016. 

    This chapter examines the foundational years of the post-Cold War order (from the late 1980s to the mid-1990s), telling the tale of the ‘Cold Peace’. The period was typified by the rise of competition in and over the states between Russia and the West (the ‘In-Betweens’), and Central Asia.

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